The 2012 election -- in 4 maps.
Anyone who pays even passing attention to politics knows that the November presidential election will be a referendum on the nation’s economy.
And, anyone who pays even passing attention to Fix — we assume that’s virtually everyone in the country, right? — knows that for the average voter the health of the economy is largely determined by the unemployment rate both nationally and in their particular state.
Given the primacy of the unemployment rate in peoples’ perception of the state of the economy — and, consequently, on their votes — we are forever in search of data to illustrate which way the trend line on the economy is headed.
That’s where Patchwork Nation — an amazing mapping and demographic project run by Fix friend Dante Chinni — comes in. We asked Dante to produce a few maps charting the unemployment rate over time both nationally and in the Rust Belt (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
The four maps below tell the story of the 2012 election — or at least a major part of it. They suggest that Obama can make the case that the trend line on the economy is moving in the right direction — both nationally and in a key region of the upper Midwest that could well decide who wins in November.
Obviously, events can intercede; early predictions on April’s jobs report don’t look promising for the White House. But, these four maps do tell a positive story — if not as positive a story as they’d like — for the Obama Administration on the economy.
Map #1 is a look at where the unemployment rate stood nationally in January 2009 when President Obama took office (the more red, the higher the unemployment rate; the more white, the lower the unemployment rate):
Map #2 is the unemployment rate nationally as of March 2012:
Map #3 is the unemployment rate in the Rust Belt in January 2009:
Map #4 is the unemployment rate in the Rust Belt in March 2012:
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Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is founder and editor of The Fix, a leading blog on state and national politics. He is the author of The Gospel According to the Fix: An Insider’s Guide to a Less than Holy World of Politics and an MSNBC contributor and political analyst. He also regularly appears on NBC and NPR’s The Diane Rehm Show. He joined The Post in 2005 and was named one of the top 50 journalists by Washingtonian in 2009.
Juliet Eilperin
Juliet Eilperin covers the White House for the Washington Post. She served as the Post's House of Representatives reporter from 1998-2004, covering the impeachment of Bill Clinton, lobbying, legislation, and five national congressional campaigns. Since 2004 she has been one of the country’s leading reporters covering the environment, reporting on science, policy and politics in areas including climate change, oceans, and air quality. She is the author of two books, "Fight Club Politics: How Partisanship is Poisoning the House of Representatives," and "Demon Fish: Travels Through the Hidden World of Sharks." Follow her on Twitter.
Ed O’Keefe
Ed O’Keefe covers Congress and politics for the Washington Post. He previously covered the 2008 and 2012 campaigns and reported on federal agencies and federal employees as author of The Federal Eye blog. Follow Ed on Twitter.
Aaron Blake
Aaron Blake covers national politics at the Washington Post, where he writes regularly for “The Fix,” the Post’s top political blog. A Minnesota native and summa cum laude graduate of the University of Minnesota, Aaron has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and The Hill newspaper. Aaron and his wife, Danielle, live in Annandale, Va. Follow him on Twitter.
Sean Sullivan
Sean Sullivan covers national politics for “The Fix.” Prior to joining the Washington Post in the summer of 2012, Sean was the editor of Hotline On Call, National Journal Hotline’s politics blog. He has also worked for NHK Japan Public Broadcasting and ABC News. Sean is a graduate of Hamilton College, where he received a degree in Philosophy. He lives in Washington, D.C. Follow Sean on Twitter.
Scott Clement
Scott Clement is a survey research analyst for Capital Insight, the independent polling group of Washington Post Media. Scott specializes in public opinion about politics, election campaigns and public policy. He helps design and analyze all Washington Post polls, including the Washington Post-ABC News poll. Follow Scott on Twitter.
Rachel Weiner
Rachel Weiner covers national politics for Post Politics and The Fix. She came to the Washington Post in 2010 as a political web editor and anchored the Post's 2012 election blog. She was previously a web editor at The Huffington Post. Follow her on Twitter.
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