John Kasich looking to compromise on ballot referendum

Ohio Gov. John Kasich delivers the State of the State address in March in Columbus, Ohio. Kasich on Wednesday moved to compromise with labor groups over his bill that reins in collective bargaining rights of public employee unions. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)Liberal and labor groups disappointed by the outcome in the Wisconsin recall elections are pointing to new developments in Ohio as proof that their effort is paying off.

Just a day after the final state Senate recall elections finished with Democrats winning two seats but coming up short of retaking the majority, Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) on Wednesday moved to avert a similar showdown in his own state.

The labor-aligned group We Are Ohio has successfully collected 1.3 million signatures to force a November ballot referendum that would repeal Kasich’s bill reining in the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions. With the idea of repeal polling well – 56 percent favored a repeal and 32 percent opposed it in a recent Quinnipiac poll – Kasich on Wednesday sent the group a letter and held a press conference urging compromise.

The move is a tacit acknowledgment that Kasich and the state GOP could very well lose the battle ahead – or at least that it will be a very expensive distraction with possibly disastrous consequences for Kasich’s budget.

The lesson is well-learned. Liberal groups got a jump on the recalls in Wisconsin, eventually forcing conservative groups to match their spending and driving the cost of nine recall elections to $40 million combined.

Ohio Democrats are already plugging the Wisconsin results as proof of both the opportunity and challenges ahead.

“We are encouraged by these results, but the lesson is clear: we can take NOTHING for granted between now and November 8,” Ohio state Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern said Wednesday in a fundraising e-mail.

A spokesman for Kasich, though, said that the results in Wisconsin had nothing to do with Kasich’s move, pointing to a previous effort to unite and cut a deal behind closed doors in June. That effort failed.

“The governor, when he was in Congress, worked across party lines all the time,” spokesman Rob Nichols said. “Deals were done with Democrats. He’s built his career on working in bipartisan way, and he’ll talk to anyone.”

Asked why his side wasn’t holding its ground and letting the referendum play out, Nichols said Kasich wants to avoid “a very ugly, expensive campaign.”

But labor isn’t taking the bait. We Are Ohio on Wednesday said it will not compromise and will press forward with its repeal efforts. It urged the legislature to repeal the bill before any talks would take place.

When one side is trying to compromise and the other isn’t, that usually means the side that wants to compromise isn’t fighting from a position of strength.

And in this case, the polling bears that out.

The Quinnipiac poll last month showed 52 percent of independents and even 35 percent of Republicans favor repeal. And by a 50--to-38 percent margin, Ohioans said eliminating collective bargaining rights is not required to balance the state budget.

Republicans say the polling is skewed because, as in Wisconsin, the liberal and labor groups have been the first to get out their message.

They also note that certain aspects of the bill – including asking public employees to pay 15 percent of their health insurance premiums and to pay 10 percent toward their pensions – poll well.

“I think that, when people understand the entirety instead of just hearing bits and pieces, it was making sense to them,” said Julie Wagner Feasel, vice president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, which supports the bill.

Other parts of the bill though – including prohibiting public employees from striking and from bargaining over their health insurance plans – don’t poll well at all.

The problem for Republicans is that, even if people agree with some parts of the bill, the portions that they clearly don’t like could very well win the day. It’s much easier to make the case that prohibiting strikes is bad than it is to contend that, even if people don’t like certain aspects, the rest of the bill makes it worth it.

As we’ve pointed out many times, people want to balance budgets and cut spending, but when you ask them more precisely how to do it, they rarely agree on the solution. And Kasich’s bill contains plenty for people to dislike.

It’s hardly a lost cause for the GOP and it’s group focused on the referendum, Building a Better Ohio, but it’s certainly an expensive and difficult road ahead.

If Wisconsin showed the GOP anything, it’s that these kinds of battles are best avoided because labor is well-funded and more than willing to make an example out of an important cause.

As we discussed last week, this is the real takeaway from Wisconsin. While it may not have broad political implications for 2012, the policy implications of this battle are pretty evident. And nowhere is that more clear than in Ohio.

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