Wisconsin recall=Wisconsin 2010
The analysis of why Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker beat back the Democratic-led attempt to oust him from office on Tuesday continues to fly back and forth across the political world. (We have our own theories, which we explain here.)
But, for all of the words spilled about the “why”, Walker’s win can be boiled down into a single sentence: The recall electorate looks almost exactly like the 2010 governor’s race electorate where Walker first beat Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.
Ninety one percent of Democrats voted for Barrett on Tuesday; 90 percent of Democrats voted for him in the 2010 race. Ditto Walker who won 94 percent of Republicans in the recall and 95 percent of Republicans in the first gubernatorial race.
The similarities hold across voters of all ages too. The recall results were almost identical to the 2010 results among voters 30-44, 45-64 and 65+; among 18-29 year olds, Barrett won by four on Tuesday while he won by 10 in November 2010.
Even the labor vote was remarkably consistent. While labor did comprise a larger portion of the overall recall vote than it did in 2010 — 33 percent to 26 percent — how those people voted was virtually the same in both races. Barrett won 62 percent among union households in the recall and 63 percent among union households in the governor’s race.
Thanks to our new partnership with the Post’s polling team — that’s @postpolls on Twitter — you can compare the 2012 recall results with the 2010 governor’s race results across all sorts of demographic categories in the interactive chart below.
Happy slicing and dicing!