Elizabeth Warren holds slight lead over Scott Brown, poll shows

October 7, 2012

Democrat Elizabeth Warren holds a slight lead over Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), with about four weeks left until Election Day in the cycle’s marquee Senate showdown, according to a new survey released Sunday.


Sen Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D). (Christopher Evans/AP)

Warren leads Brown 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a Western New England University poll conducted for the Springfield Republican newspaper and Masslive.com. The Democrat’s lead is mostly unchanged from an early September poll showing her leading Brown 50 percent to 44 percent. Other recent polls have mostly shown Warren with a single-digit lead over Brown.

While the overall horse race hasn’t changed much since the previous survey, men and women appear to have grown increasingly polarized in their preferences. Warren leads Brown 61 percent to 35 percent among women likely to vote – up from her 55 percent to 40 percent advantage in the previous poll. Among likely male voters, Brown currently leads 56 percent to 38 percent, up from his 49 percent to 44 percent lead in the last poll.

Brown draws strong support from independents, who prefer the senator over Warren by a 62 percent to 35 percent margin. Brown attracts stronger support from Republicans (98 percent prefer him) than Warren does from Democrats (85 percent prefer her).

Brown and Warren have debated twice so far, both impassioned sessions that laid bare clear political and policy differences between the two candidates. They will meet twice more before the election: Once on Wednesday, then again on Oct. 30.

Sean Sullivan has covered national politics for The Washington Post since 2012.
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Sean Sullivan · October 7, 2012