Obama leads Romney by eight in Wisconsin, poll shows

October 31, 2012

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EARLIER ON THE FIX: 

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WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED: 

* President Obama has opened up an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette Law School poll of those likeliest to vote in the Badger State. Obama leads Romney 51 percent to 43 percent in the survey, which was conducted from Oct. 25-28. The same pollster found Obama leading Romney by just one point (49-48) two weeks ago. In the Wisconsin Senate race, the poll showed Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) with a slight 47 percent to 43 percent advantage over former governor Tommy Thompson (R). 

* Obama released a new radio ad touting the endorsement of former secretary of state Colin Powell, who crossed party lines to back the Democrat for a second time. Powell's endorsement prompted top Romney surrogate John Sununu to suggest the former Bush administration chief diplomat made the move because both men are African American, a claim he later backed away from. 

* Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) leads state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) 47 percent to 38 percent, according to a Global Strategy Group poll conducted from Oct. 28-30 for the Democrat's Senate campaign. When the Libertarian candidate is included, Donnelly's lead over Morudock shrinks to 43 percent to 36 percent. An internal poll conducted for the Democratic Governors Association and Indiana Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Gregg's campaign by Clarity Campaign Labs showed Donnelly leading Mourdock 49 percent to 42 percent (more on that survey below). As we noted this morning, a Mourdock internal poll released Wednesday showed a virtual tie between him and Donnelly. 

* In the Democratic poll referenced above, Rep. Mike Pence (R) leads Gregg by a closer-than-expected 47 percent to 44 percent margin among those likeliest to vote. Pence has been regarded as a substantial favorite over Gregg in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Mitch Daniels (R). 

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T MISS:

 * Rep. Todd Akin has placed a large ad buy for the final days of his campaign against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). The Akin campaign placed a $300,000 buy and a $386,000 coordinated buy with the state GOP. When asked by The Fix if the National Republican Senatorial Committee was pitching in for the coordinated buy, committee spokesman Brian Walsh declined to comment. The NRSC said it would not spend money on Akin when it was trying to force him out of the race after he stoked controversy when he remarked in August that "legitimate rape" rarely causes pregnancy, but has since opened the door to the possibility The Missouri state GOP had $230,000 cash on hand as of this week, so a coordinated buy would probably have used the lion's share of its money unless it got a big transfer.

* Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) rejected Elizabeth Warren's (D) proposal to debate on Thursday, following their mutual decision to skip Tuesday's debate because of Hurricane Sandy. "With only days remaining in the campaign, and with a long-planned bus tour kicking off Thursday through Election Day that will take Scott Brown to every corner of the Commonwealth, our calendar simply cannot accommodate a rescheduling of this fourth debate and the planning and preparation that would go into it," said Brown spokesman Colin Reed. Meanwhile, Warren released a new positive ad in which she says, "If you send me to the Senate, I’ll work my heart out for you."

* Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) will campaign for Pennsylvania Republican Senate nominee Tom Smith on Thursday. Like Johnson in 2010, Smith is a wealthy businessman running against a Democratic incumbent. 

* Senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod bet his mustache Obama will win Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. 

THE FIX MIX:

Tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney. 

 With Aaron Blake

Sean Sullivan has covered national politics for The Washington Post since 2012.
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Sean Sullivan | October 31, 2012