Nevada moves to “lean Obama”

November 3, 2012

With the election just three days away, Nevada appears to have moved out of range for Mitt Romney and we are moving the race to "leans Obama". 

While polling suggests the race remains close between the two candidates, strategists in both parties say the contest is moving in Obama's direction -- unlike Ohio which both sides acknowledge is likely closer than recent polls suggest.

The problem for Romney in Nevada is -- and always has been -- the Hispanic vote. According to the 2010 Census, roughly three in ten (27 percent) residents of Nevada are Hispanic and President Obama is winning them with massive majorities. (A Nevada poll conducted by Latino Decisions last month showed Obama winning Hispanic voters 78 percent to 17 percent.)

The strength of organized labor -- particularly the Culinary Workers Union -- in Las Vegas (Clark County) also works heavily in Obama's favor. As Jon Ralston, the top political reporter and analyst in the state, notes that Democrats have a 70,000 early vote edge in the county.

Writes Ralston: "The credible polls on both sides would have to be wrong -- i.e. Romney would have to win independents by a large margin -- for him to win Nevada."

With Nevada now leaning toward Obama, the President has 243 electoral votes leaning or solidly on his side while Romney has 206 electoral votes solid or leaning his way.  Seven states -- with 89 electoral votes -- are in the "tossup" category.

 

Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
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