Generic ballot tilts toward Democrats

Even as the White House battles scandals that have empowered Republicans on Capitol Hill, there's some of good news for Democrats in today's Washington Post-ABC News poll.


Minority Leader of the House Nancy Pelosiat an inaugural luncheon on  Capitol Hill Monday, January 21, 2013. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Asked if they would support the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in their congressional district were the election held today, 48 percent of registered voters chose the Democrat. Forty percent chose the Republican.

Democrats almost always have a generic ballot advantage over Democrats; even in October of 2010 Post polling gave the party a five-point edge. (Among likely voters, it was Republicans who led by four points.) Extrapolating from a national survey to individual House seats that will be competitive in 2014 is impossible.

So this isn't huge news for Democrats or evidence that it will be any easier for them to win the 17 seats needed to win back the House. That's still a long shot. But it is a sign that so far, the administration's troubles are not causing problems for the president's party.

Rachel Weiner covers local politics for The Washington Post.
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Rachel Weiner · May 23, 2013