Why Clay Aiken is a long shot, in 3 stats

Former "American Idol" star Clay Aiken (D) is officially running for Congress.

But if you think the "Idol" runner-up has a good shot at beating Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.) and becoming the most talked-about freshman of the 114th Congress, consider these three stats:

1) Only three House Democrats represent districts that are redder than the one Aiken is seeking (it went just less than 58 percent for Mitt Romney).

2) Of those three Democrats -- two (Reps. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) ) -- are retiring in 2014 after getting huge scares in 2012. The third, Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), has been in Congress since the mid-1970s but still finds himself in a toss-up race, despite that seniority.

3) 88 House Republicans represent districts that are bluer than Ellmers's.

Aaron Blake covers national politics and writes regularly for The Fix, the Post’s top political blog.
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