election-lab

The Washington Post’s election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate. Um, what?

A conversation with the men who created the WaPo model.

Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate

Could an upset be brewing?

Our Senate model is moving in Democrats’ direction all of a sudden. Why?

Simply put: Democratic candidates are overperforming.

Our election model says Republicans have an 86 percent chance of winning the Senate. Here’s why that might be wrong.

Candidates matter.

There are 405 House races where the frontrunner has a 90% chance of winning

Competition? What competition?

Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate. Wait, what?

A conversation with the man who built WaPo's Senate prediction model.

Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate

Introducing Election Lab, the WaPo election modeling effort.