I have a sophisticated, experienced political observation that I would now like to make: These polls that show President Obama with a several-point lead are !#*%@! I have yet to meet the person who says, “I made a mistake in the last election. I didn’t vote for Obama in 2008, but I’m going to this time.” I don’t think that person exists, but if this post finds its way to a reader who fits this description, please write to me and let me know.
Anecdotally, I hear from people all the time who are disgruntled President Obama voters. The turnout models in polling must be skewed. There can’t be one demographic group where Obama is stronger today than he was in 2008. At the same time, Mitt Romney has a much stronger campaign organization, stronger campaign finances, more allied groups and isn’t battling the Obama mystique the way Sen. John McCain was in 2008. Also, I refuse to believe that only 4 to 7 percent of voters are undecided right now. The entire universe of voters isn’t as engaged as the pollsters would have us believe.
As I’ve said before, I’m a self-described panicker, sometimes I like to panic, and I’m not panicking. It’s too early to panic. I’ll tell you when to panic.