Super Tuesday: Romney still has to wait

March 7, 2012

Well, the fight continues. Romney keeps winning and he is stronger , Santorum is hanging in there but not showing anything other than a proud second place, Gingrich has some explaining to do and Paul is still immune to traditional political rules about winning and loosing. Ohio was close but a win is a win in this environment, a good second place doesn’t count. Also, the Ohio vote means economic issues carried the day and social issue can’t make you a winner. Whew!

One reason I don’t give Santorum more credit winning the states he did is because Romney will lose to a credible GOP challenger in a traditional southern state every time. As a Mormon he has a ceiling. No way Alabama or Mississippi will vote for Romney if Santorum is truly contesting those states.

If you freeze the trajectory of the race, Romney wins the west and most of the midwest, Santorum wins Dixie and a few small states and Romney is the nominee. A big question for Santorum is the resilience of his Super PAC donors. Without them he is defenseless. But he is still viable in the south.

Barrack Obama wasn’t the Democratic nominee until June 4th in 2008 and that timing feels about right for when the GOP race will conclude in 2012.

Ed Rogers is a contributor to the PostPartisan blog, a political consultant and a veteran of the White House and several national campaigns. He is the chairman of the lobbying and communications firm BGR Group, which he founded with former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour in 1991.
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