Rivalry between China and India will continue through 2025

The competition between India and China as global powerhouses will continue through at least 2025, says a new report from the RAND Corporation.

Both China and India continue to grow in prominence, but each country carries its own unique advantages, says RAND researchers. The RAND study assesses the prospects of China and India through 2025 in four areas: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology and defense spending and procurement.

India’s prime working-age population will overtake China’s in 2028, but China has advantages in science, technology, and national defense capabilities, according to the report. However, India’s more open and flexible political and economic systems provide increased opportunities for better political performance and economic growth, giving it a potential advantage over China.

The study found that while both countries are expected to have 1.4 billion people in 2025, China’s population has more access to better health care, as well as higher levels of education.

The study, “China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment,” was co-authored by Charles Wolf, Jr., Siddhartha Dalal, Julie DaVanzo, Eric V. Larson and Harun Dogo, all of RAND; Alisher R. Akhmedjonov, assistant professor in the economics department of Zirve University in Turkey; and Sylvia Montoya and Meilinda Huang, formerly of RAND.

The study was sponsored by the director of net assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies and the defense Intelligence community.

Allen McDuffee writes about politics and policy and covered think tanks for The Washington Post from 2011 to 2013. He blogs and hosts a podcast at governmentality.net and is currently working on a book about the influence of think tanks in Washington.

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