Will Obama have a disastrous second term? Oh, I don’t think so, and this comes from someone who insisted all along that Obama would in fact HAVE a second term. Yes my unwise proclivities toward futurecasting have been fed by my successes, just as a a gambler is encouraged by a few early wins. Here’s why Obama should have a good second term:
Economics. Whether or not it makes sense, the American public views the presidency as a big desk in the Oval Office with a dial on it. The dial is marked Good Economy on one side, and Bad Economy on the other side. When the economy is Bad, the public gets angry that the president has selected that setting for the dial, and blame him. When the economy is Good, they approve of him for doing the right thing by turning his dial to Good. The election was tense, because the economy was Not Good Enough, but Better. This confused the electorate into suspecting that maybe Economics was more complicated than a dial with two settings. Maybe it has three! Four?!?!? Whatever. The economy is going to be better still in his second term, and Obama will be given credit.
Politics. This is one reason that the economy will be getting better. The Republican Corporate Titans who fund the GOP may have been willing to grind out a few years of sub-par performance by going along with the GOP plan to defeat Obama by cutting back on the economy’s Air Supply. But they surely are unwilling to endure eight. They see the writing on the wall that their taxes will be going up, and by golly, the only way to make that up now will be th old fashioned way of a healthy, growing economy. So as much as they hate to see Obama surfing along on that wave, they have no choice, and will have no patience for GOP tactics that slow the game down. Watch and see.