No, there probably won’t be an ‘October surprise’ over the debt ceiling
At least that’s what JP Morgan’s top economist concludes. Michael Feroli pushes back against recent speculation that the 2012 campaign could be mired in another debt-ceiling fight:
Our best estimate (reasoning laid out below) is that the debt ceiling will be hit in December — after the election but before the end of the year. ... However, recall that Treasury can and has used various accounting gimmicks to extend the “drop dead” date on the debt ceiling ... we believe the “drop dead” date on the debt ceiling is probably in February, shortly after Inauguration Day early next year ...
The fresh CBO projection for the fiscal year 2012 deficit is $1079 billion. The implication of today’s legislated action is to add $101 billion onto that figure, bringing the FY12 deficit to $1180 billion. ... If the CBO is close to being correct, then at the end of this fiscal year — September 30 — the headroom under the debt ceiling will be down to around $250 billion ... this would imply the debt ceiling is hit in mid-December.