The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Thursday, Sept. 27

September 27, 2012

Note - as we near the election, we're replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day's polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.


A frame from Obama's new ad, "My Job" / Obama for America

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 46

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Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Arizona (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 52, Obama 42

Connecticut (PPP): Obama 54, Romney 41

Indiana (Howey/DePauw): Romney 52, Obama 40

Virginia (Suffolk/WWBT): Obama 46, Romney 44

Washington (Gravis Marketing): Obama 56, Romney 39

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Race: Senate

Indiana (Howey/DePauw): Donnelly (D) 40, Mourdock (R) 38

Maine (Rasmussen Reports): King (I) 45, Summers (R) 33, Dill (D) 14

Minnesota (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon): Klobuchar (D) 57, Bills (R) 28

Virginia (Suffolk/WWBT): Kaine (D) 44, Allen (R) 44

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Race: Governor

Indiana (Howey/DePauw): Pence (R) 47, Gregg (D) 34

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Race: House

New York 25th District (Siena): Slaughter (D) 52, Brooks (R) 42

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama — 315.9; Romney — 222.1

Chance of winning: Obama — 81.9%; Romney — 18.1%

Popular Vote: Obama — 51.3%; Romney — 47.6%

Senate prediction: Democrats — 51.7; Republicans — 48.3

Chance of Winning: Democrats — 78.1%; Republicans — 21.9%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 343; Romney: 195

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 50-55D/I)

House: D +2.5%

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Ads

Mitt Romney - "Too Many Americans"

Mitt Romney - "Bankrupt"

Barack Obama - "Table"

Barack Obama - "My Job"

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Suzy Khimm · September 27, 2012