The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Monday, Oct. 1

October 1, 2012

Note: As we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Still from new Obama for America ad, "Since When."

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

CNN/Opinion Research: Obama 50, Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post: Obama 49, Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground: Obama 49, Romney 47

Gallup Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 45

Florida (Gravis Marketing): Obama 49, Romney 48

Iowa (WeAskAmerica): Obama 48, Romney 44

North Carolina (PPP): Romney 48, Obama 48

North Carolina (ARG): Romney 50, Obama 46

Michigan (WeAskAmerica): Obama 52, Romney 40

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 60, Romney 32

Race: Senate

Massachusetts Senate (WBUR/MassINC): Warren 49, Brown 45

Florida Senate (Gravis Marketing): Nelson 43, Mack 43

Ohio Senate (Columbus Dispatch*): Brown 49, Mandel 39

New Mexico Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Heinrich 52, Wilson 39

Hawaii Senate (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG): Hirono 55, Lingle 39

Race: House

Massachusetts 6th District (Boston Globe): Tisei 37, Tierney 31

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 340; Romney: 198

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 320.1; Romney: 217.9

Chance of winning: Obama: 85.1%; Romney: 14.9%

Popular Vote: Obama: 51.6%; Romney: 47.4%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.8; Republicans: 48.2

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 80.2%; Republicans: 19.8%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 50-55D/I)

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Barack Obama: Since When

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kweMVAHE6vA

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