The Election in Numbers: Tuesday, Oct. 2

October 2, 2012

Source: Washington Post

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

National Journal: Obama 47, Romney 47

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl: Obama 49, Romney 46

Quinnipiac: Obama 49, Romney 45

Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Florida (Suffolk/WSVN): Obama 46, Romney 43

Virginia (Roanoke College): Obama 48, Romney 40

North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 47

Nevada (WeAskAmerica): Obama 53, Romney 42

Missouri (WeAskAmerica): Romney 48, Obama 45

New Mexico (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 51, Romney 40

Rhode Island (WPRI/Fleming): Obama 57, Romney 33

Maryland (Baltimore Sun): Obama 57, Romney 34

Race: Senate

Virginia Senate (Roanoke College): Kaine (D) 47, Allen (R) 37

Nevada Senate (WeAskAmerica): Heller (R) 45, Berkley (D) 45

Missouri Senate (WeAskAmerica): McCaskill (D) 46, Akin (R) 45

Florida Senate (Suffolk/WSVN*): Nelson (D) 40, Mack (R) 34

Ohio Senate (PPP): Brown (D) 49, Mandel (R) 41

Rhode Island Senate (WPRI/Fleming): Whitehouse (D) 56, Hinckley (R) 30

Race: House

Utah 4th District (Deseret News/KSL): Love (R) 49, Matheson (D) 43

Race: Governor

New Hampshire Governor (WMUR/UNH): Lamontagne (R) 40, Hassan (D) 42

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 340; Romney: 198

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 318.6; Romney: 219.4

Chance of winning: Obama: 84.7%; Romney: 15.3%

Popular Vote: Obama: 51.4%; Romney: 47.5%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.8; Republicans: 48.2

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 80.2%; Republicans: 19.8%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 347; Romney: 191

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 50-55D/I)

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Ezra Klein · October 2, 2012