The 2012 Election in Numbers, Tuesday, Oct. 9

October 9, 2012

Obama for America's "Big Bird" ad

As we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking (likely voters): Romney 49, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 48

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 51, Romney 47

Ohio (ARG): Obama 47, Romney 48

Pennsylvania (Siena): Obama 43, Romney 40

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 47, Romney 47

Colorado (ARG): Romney 50, Obama 46

New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Obama 47, Romney 41

Minnesota (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 43

North Carolina (Gravis Marketing): Romney 50, Obama 41

Connecticut (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 51, Romney 45

North Dakota (Mason-Dixon): Romney 54, Obama 40

Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 52, Romney 36

Race: Senate

Massachusetts Senate (WBUR/MassINC): Warren (D) 45, Brown (R) 48

North Dakota Senate (Mason-Dixon): Berg (R) 47, Heitkamp (D) 47

Connecticut Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Murphy (D) 51, McMahon (R) 46

Pennsylvania Senate (Siena): Casey (D) 44, Smith (R) 35

Minnesota Senate (PPP): Klobuchar (D) 57, Bills (R) 31

Race: Governor

North Carolina Governor (Gravis Marketing): McCrory (R) 50, Dalton (D) 33

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 297.2; Romney: 240.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 71.4%; Romney: 28.6%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.5%; Romney: 48.5%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7%; Republicans: 17.3%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 302; Romney: 236

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Barack Obama - Big Bird

Barack Obama - Earned

Barack Obama - Buen Ejemplo

Barack Obama - Only Choice

Mitt Romney - Merecemos

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Suzy Khimm | October 9, 2012