The 2012 Election in Numbers – Wednesday, Oct. 10

Still from Mitt Romney's new ad, "Helping the MIddle Class."

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

FOX News: Romney 46, Obama 45

Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 44

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Obama 45, Romney 44

Wisconsin (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 51, Romney 49

Florida (UNF): Romney 45, Obama 49

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 48

Nevada (LVRJ/SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 46

Pennsylvania (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 51, Romney 46

New Mexico (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 54, Romney 43

Montana (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 41

Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS): Obama 51, Romney 37

Rhode Island (Brown University): Obama 58, Romney 32

Race: Senate

Ohio Senate (SurveyUSA): Brown (D) 42, Mandel (R) 38

Nevada Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Heller (R) 48, Berkley (D) 45

Montana Senate (PPP): Rehberg (R) 43, Tester (D) 45

Pennsylvania Senate (Susquehanna): Casey (D) 46, Smith (R) 44

Maine Senate (Pan Atlantic SMS): King (I) 50, Summers (R) 24, Dill (D) 12

Rhode Island Senate (Brown University): Whitehouse 59 (D), Hinckley 30 (R)

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 296.7; Romney: 241.3

Chance of winning: Obama: 71.2%; Romney: 28.8%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.5%; Romney: 48.5%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7%; Republicans: 17.3%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 304; Romney: 234

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

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Mitt Romney - Putting Jobs First

Mitt Romney - Helping the Middle Class

Barack Obama - C'mon Man

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Brad Plumer · October 10, 2012