The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Oct. 11, 2012

October 11, 2012

Governor John Lynch (D-N.H.) endorses Barack Obama in the ad "Strong Leader."

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 48

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun: Romney 47, Obama 46

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Florida (TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 44

Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Romney 47, Obama 48

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 47

Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45

Ohio (Gravis Marketing): Obama 45, Romney 46

Colorado (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Romney 48, Obama 47

Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 48

Virginia (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 46

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 51, Obama 48

Nevada (Suffolk/KSNV): Obama 47, Romney 45

Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 47

Michigan (Detroit News): Obama 49, Romney 42

Michigan (Gravis Marketing): Obama 46, Romney 44

Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 50, Romney 42

New Jersey (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 51, Romney 40

California (SurveyUSA): Obama 53, Romney 39

Massachusetts (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 41

Race: Senate

Massachusetts Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Warren (D) 49, Brown (R) 47

Massachusetts Senate (PPP): Warren (D) 50, Brown (R) 44

Virginia Senate (WeAskAmerica): Kaine (D) 41, Allen (R) 46

Virginia Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Kaine (D) 47, Allen (R) 46

Ohio Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Brown (D) 52, Mandel (R) 41

Florida Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Nelson (D) 52, Mack (R) 39

Virginia Senate (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Kaine (D) 51, Allen (R) 44

Wisconsin Senate (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Baldwin (D) 48, Thompson (R) 46

Nevada Senate (Suffolk/KSNV*): Heller (D) 40, Berkley (R) 37

Pennsylvania Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Casey (D) 49, Smith (R) 45

Michigan Senate (Detroit News): Stabenow (D) 50, Hoekstra (R) 38

New Mexico Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Heinrich (D) 52, Wilson (R) 39

California Senate (SurveyUSA): Feinstein (D) 54, Emken (R) 35

===

Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

===

FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 289.2; Romney: 248.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 65.5%; Romney: 34.5%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7%; Republicans: 17.3%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 286; Romney: 252

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Barack Obama - Strong Leader

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October 11, 2012

Governor John Lynch (D-N.H.) endorses Barack Obama in the ad "Strong Leader."

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 48

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun: Romney 47, Obama 46

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Florida (TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 44

Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Romney 47, Obama 48

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 47

Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45

Ohio (Gravis Marketing): Obama 45, Romney 46

Colorado (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Romney 48, Obama 47

Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 48

Virginia (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 46

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 51, Obama 48

Nevada (Suffolk/KSNV): Obama 47, Romney 45

Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 47

Michigan (Detroit News): Obama 49, Romney 42

Michigan (Gravis Marketing): Obama 46, Romney 44

Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 50, Romney 42

New Jersey (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 51, Romney 40

California (SurveyUSA): Obama 53, Romney 39

Massachusetts (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 41

Race: Senate

Massachusetts Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Warren (D) 49, Brown (R) 47

Massachusetts Senate (PPP): Warren (D) 50, Brown (R) 44

Virginia Senate (WeAskAmerica): Kaine (D) 41, Allen (R) 46

Virginia Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Kaine (D) 47, Allen (R) 46

Ohio Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Brown (D) 52, Mandel (R) 41

Florida Senate (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Nelson (D) 52, Mack (R) 39

Virginia Senate (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Kaine (D) 51, Allen (R) 44

Wisconsin Senate (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Baldwin (D) 48, Thompson (R) 46

Nevada Senate (Suffolk/KSNV*): Heller (D) 40, Berkley (R) 37

Pennsylvania Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Casey (D) 49, Smith (R) 45

Michigan Senate (Detroit News): Stabenow (D) 50, Hoekstra (R) 38

New Mexico Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Heinrich (D) 52, Wilson (R) 39

California Senate (SurveyUSA): Feinstein (D) 54, Emken (R) 35

===

Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

===

FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 289.2; Romney: 248.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 65.5%; Romney: 34.5%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 51.9; Republicans: 48.1

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 82.7%; Republicans: 17.3%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 286; Romney: 252

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Barack Obama - Strong Leader

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Suzy Khimm | October 11, 2012