The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Friday, Oct. 12

October 12, 2012

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 46, Obama 46

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 47, Romney 49

New Hampshire (ARG): Obama 46, Romney 50

Colorado (Denver Post/SurveyUSA): Romney 48, Obama 47

Florida (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 51, Obama 47

Florida (ARG): Romney 49, Obama 46

Michigan (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 52, Romney 45

Race: Senate

Ohio Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Brown (D) 47, Mandel (R) 46

Florida Senate (TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon): Nelson (D) 47, Mack (R) 42

Wisconsin Senate (Rasmussen Reports): Baldwin (D) 51, Thompson (R) 47

Pennsylvania Senate (Philadelphia Inquirer): Casey (D) 48, Smith (R) 38

New Jersey Senate (Philadelphia Inquirer): Menendez (D) 49, Kyrillos (R) 35

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 289.9; Romney: 248.1

Chance of winning: Obama: 66.1 percent; Romney: 33.9 percent

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0 percent; Romney: 48.9 percent

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.2; Republicans: 47.8

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 83.6 percent; Republicans: 16.4 percent

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 277; Romney: 261

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95 percent CI: 51-56D/I)

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Barack Obama — Economic Growth

Barack Obama — The Romney-Ryan Strategy: Thirsting for an Answer

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Dylan Matthews · October 12, 2012