Seven takeaways from the new Post/ABC poll

October 15, 2012

1) Now there's at least one poll showing President Obama ahead. Ever since the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney has been surging ahead in the polls. As of Sunday, the Real Clear Politics polling clearinghouse had Romney up by an average of 47 percent to Obama's 46.3 percent.

The new Post/ABC poll, however, shows Obama up by three points among likely voters. (For those curious: The sample in the poll has a 9-point party ID edge for Democratic voters—Democrats had just a 7-point edge in voter exit polling in the 2008 election, and could have an even lower edge this time around. But party ID can bounce around a fair bit from poll to poll.)

2) Roughly one-third of "certain voters" are either voting early or by mail:

3) Voters aren't especially confident that either Obama or Romney as president can get the economy back on track in the next year or two. Only 49 percent of registered voters are confident that the country will "get back on track economically" for each candidate:

4) Voters are hazy about what policies Obama is proposing — but they're really hazy on what Romney's putting forward:

 

5) The Obama campaign appears to have reached out to slightly more voters than the Romney campaign, although it's not a huge difference:

6) The debate helped Romney's image quite a bit — and hurt Obama's somewhat:

7) But, uh, at least Obama still wins the all-crucial "who's more likely to go bungee jumping" question:

You can see the full results here.

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Dylan Matthews | October 15, 2012