The 2012 election in numbers: Monday, Oct. 15

October 15, 2012

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of the day’s polls and model projections, as well as the latest campaign ads.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground: Romney 48, Obama 49

ABC News/Wash Post: Romney 46, Obama 49

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Obama 49, Romney 45

Iowa (ARG): Obama 48, Romney 48

Virginia (ARG): Obama 47, Romney 48

Colorado (Gravis Marketing): Romney 46, Obama 48

Florida (Gravis Marketing): Romney 49, Obama 48

Pennsylvania (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 44

North Carolina (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 47

Missouri (Wenzel Strategies): Romney 55, Obama 41

Race: Senate

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Kaine (D) 48, Allen (R) 47

Indiana (Rasmussen Reports): Mourdock (R) 47, Donnelly (D) 42

Florida (Rasmussen Reports): Nelson (D) 46, Mack (R) 45

Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Casey (D) 41, Smith (R) 39

Pennsylvania (PPP): Casey (D) 50, Smith (R) 39

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal): Heinrich (D) 48, Wilson (R) 39

Michigan (Rasmussen Reports): Stabenow (D) 51, Hoekstra (R) 39

===

Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

===

FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 289.2; Romney: 248.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 66.0%; Romney: 34.0%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.1%; Romney: 48.8%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 280; Romney: 258

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Barack Obama — The Real Mitt Romney: Remember What He's Said Before

Barack Obama — President Obama Visits the OFA Henderson, Nevada Office

Barack Obama — Jay-Z: The Power of Our Voice

Barack Obama — My Day with President Obama

Barack Obama — Character

Barack Obama — "Don't be Fooled."

Barack Obama — Main Street

SECTION: {section=business, subsection=null}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: !!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Comments
SECTION: {section=business, subsection=null}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: !!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Show Comments
Most Read Business
Next Story
Ezra Klein | October 15, 2012