The 2012 Election in Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 17


Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 45, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Wisconsin (Marquette University): Obama 49, Romney 48

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 49

Nevada (LVRJ/SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 45

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 47

Montana (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 53, Obama 45

New Jersey (Neighborhood Research): Obama 48, Romney 41

Connecticut (Siena): Obama 53, Romney 38

Washington (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 55, Romney 42

Race: Senate

Wisconsin (Marquette University): Baldwin (D) 45, Thompson (R) 46

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 287.0; Romney: 251.0

Chance of winning: Obama: 64.8%; Romney: 35.2%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.1%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%

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Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 290; Romney: 248

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

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Barack Obama — President Obama: Commit to Vote

Barack Obama — President Obama in Mount Vernon, Iowa - 10/17/2012 - Full Speech

Barack Obama — President Obama Won

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney's Condescending Views Toward Women

Barack Obama — President Obama on Libya: "I'm the President and I'm Always Responsible." - 2012 Presidential Debate

Barack Obama — President Obama's Closing Remarks - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Women's Rights - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Mitt Romney's Sketchy Deal - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on the Romney Plan for Women - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney on Pay Equity for Women: "Binders Full of Women" - 2012 Presidential Debate

Barack Obama — President Obama: Giving Middle Class Families Relief - 2012 Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Energy and the Environment - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — President Obama on Romney's Immigration Plan - 2012 Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York

Barack Obama — Ride for the President

Mitt Romney — The Choice

Mitt Romney — Soluciones para la Inmigración

Mitt Romney — Cabinet Members - Humanity

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Dylan Matthews · October 17, 2012