The 2012 Election in Numbers: Thursday, Oct. 18

October 18, 2012

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Romney 52, Obama 45

Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 46, Obama 46

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 49, Romney 48

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Obama 45, Romney 42

Michigan (LE&A/Denno Research): Obama 44, Romney 41

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 52, Obama 46

Colorado (PPP): Romney 47, Obama 50

Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 40

Washington (The Washington Poll): Obama 52, Romney 43

Connecticut (Hartford Courant/UConn): Obama 51, Romney 37

Race: Senate

Ohio (SurveyUSA): Brown 43, Mandel (R) 38

Nevada (Rasmussen Reports): Heller (R) 50, Berkley (D) 43

Nevada (LVRJ/SurveyUSA): Heller (R) 46, Berkley (D) 40

Connecticut (Hartford Courant/UConn): Murphy (D) 44, McMahon (R) 38

Washington (The Washington Poll): Cantwell (D) 58, Baumgartner (R) 35

Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA): Klobuchar (D) 58, Bills 30

Race: House

Florida 22nd District (Sunshine State News/VSS): Frankel 47, Hasner 47

Race: Governor

Washington (The Washington Poll): Inslee (D) 47, McKenna (R) 46

New Hampshire (Rasmussen Reports): Lamontagne (R) 48, Hassan (D) 46

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Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

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FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 287.2; Romney: 250.8

Chance of winning: Obama: 65.7%; Romney: 34.3%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.1%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 290; Romney: 248

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)

===

Mitt Romney - Sarah Barack Obama - Seen

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Dylan Matthews | October 18, 2012