The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Friday, Oct. 19

October 19, 2012

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Gallup Tracking: Obama 45, Romney 51

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48

IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 45

Hartford Courant/UConn: Obama 48, Romney 45

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Virginia (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 50, Obama 47

Iowa (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 49

Florida (CNN/Opinion Research): Romney 49, Obama 48

Florida (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 51, Obama 46

New Hampshire (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48

Wisconsin (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 50, Romney 48

Oregon (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 42

Missouri (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 54, Obama 43

California (Reason-Rupe): Obama 53, Romney 38

Race: Senate

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Brown 49, Mandel (R) 44

Missouri (Rasmussen Reports): McCaskill (D) 51, Akin (R) 43

California (Reason-Rupe): Feinstein (D) 60, Emken (R) 34

Race: House

Florida 18th District (Sunshine State News/VSS): West 49, Murphy (D) 48

Florida 18th District (PPP): West 51, Murphy (D) 42

Race: Governor

New Hampshire (PPP): Lamontagne (R) 43, Hassan (D) 45


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 291.6; Romney: 246.4

Chance of winning: Obama: 70.4%; Romney: 29.6%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.3%; Romney: 48.8%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 86.4%; Republicans: 13.6%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 299; Romney: 239

Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R (95% CI: 51-56D/I)


Barack Obama — How We Win: Organizing Offline and Online

Barack Obama — Cecile Richards Introduces President Obama in Fairfax, Virginia - 10/19/2012

Barack Obama — President Obama in Fairfax, Virginia - Full Speech - 10/19/2012

Barack Obama — Wanda Sykes: Every Vote Counts - "Go to and Be Counted."

Barack Obama — President Obama in Fairfax, Virginia: "Romnesia"

Barack Obama — Senator John Kerry: People Who Know Mitt Romney the Best Trust Him the Least

Barack Obama — North Carolina Early Vote: Day One

Barack Obama — President Obama's Energy and Environment Achievements

Barack Obama — Cecile Richards: What's at Stake in This Election

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney's Trouble Relating to Women

Barack Obama — First Lady Michelle Obama: Help Colorado Get Out the Vote

Barack Obama — Keep Virginia Blue

Mitt Romney — Bringing People Together

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