The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Oct. 22

October 22, 2012

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Politico/GWU/Battleground: Romney 49, Obama 47

ABC News/Wash Post: Romney 48, Obama 49

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun: Romney 48, Obama 45

Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 45

Rasmussen Reports: Romney 49, Obama 47

IBD/TIPP: Romney 43, Obama 47

WashTimes/JZ Analytics: Romney 47, Obama 50

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 47

Ohio (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 45

Colorado (Rasmussen Reports): Romney 50, Obama 46

New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): Obama 51, Romney 42

Iowa (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 48

Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Obama 50, Romney 45

Pennsylvania (Gravis Marketing): Obama 48, Romney 45

Race: Senate

Wisconsin (Rasmussen Reports): Baldwin (D) 46, Thompson (R) 48

Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Casey (D) 45, Smith (R) 37

Ohio (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Brown 51, Mandel (R) 42

Ohio (Suffolk): Brown 46, Mandel (R) 39

Race: House

Minnesota 8th District (Star Tribune): Nolan 50, Cravaack 43

Minnesota 6th District (Star Tribune): Bachmann 51, Graves 45

===

Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206

===

FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 288.0; Romney: 250.0

Chance of winning: Obama: 67.6%; Romney: 32.4%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.0%; Romney: 48.9%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.4; Republicans: 47.6

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 87.6%; Republicans: 12.4%

===

Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 292; Romney: 246

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 52-55 D/I)

===

Barack Obama — Vote Now Florida

Barack Obama — Mitt Romney's Statements on Russia - Failing the Commander-in-Chief Test

Barack Obama — Steadfast

Barack Obama — Eli and Seth Lovell - Twin Brothers and Veterans Who Support President Obama

Barack Obama — Rebuilding

Barack Obama — If Governor Romney Becomes President Then SB 5 Becomes a Nationwide Problem

Barack Obama — The Road to November 6th: "It's Really Me." - 16 Days Until Election Day

Mitt Romney — Healed?

Mitt Romney — The Clear Choice For Colorado

SECTION: {section=business, subsection=null}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=m6yzjj840m, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: !!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=m6yzjj840m, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Comments
SECTION: {section=business, subsection=null}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=m6yzjj840m, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: !!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=m6yzjj840m, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, defaultsort=reverseChronological, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=14, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, childrenitemsperpage=3, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, includesorts=true, includeheader=true, defaulttab=all, includeverifiedcommenters=true, includerecommend=true, maxitemstop=2, includereport=true, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=7, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Show Comments
Next Story
Ezra Klein · October 22, 2012