The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Oct. 29

Note – as we near the election, we’re replacing Reconciliation with a roundup of what the day’s polls and model projections say, and what the latest ads are.

Real Clear Politics' Latest Polls

Race: Romney vs. Obama, National

Pew Research: Romney 47, Obama 47

Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 46

ABC News/Wash Post: Romney 49, Obama 49

Politico/GWU/Battleground: Romney 48, Obama 49

Rasmussen Reports: Romney 49, Obama 47

Race: Romney vs. Obama, States

Ohio (Rasmussen Reports): Obama 48, Romney 50

Florida (CNN/Opinion Research): Romney 50, Obama 49

Colorado (ARG): Obama 47, Romney 48

North Carolina (Elon University): Romney 45, Obama 45

Massachusetts (Boston Globe): Obama 56, Romney 39

Maryland (Baltimore Sun): Obama 55, Romney 36

Race: Senate

Massachusetts (Boston Globe): Warren (D) 47, Brown 47

Ohio (Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News): Brown 51, Mandel (R) 47

Florida (Rasmussen Reports): Nelson (D) 49, Mack (R) 46

Florida (Sunshine State News/VSS): Nelson (D) 49, Mack (R) 44

Connecticut (Rasmussen Reports): Murphy (D) 51, McMahon (R) 45

Hawaii (Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Hirono (D) 57, Lingle (R) 35

Maryland (Baltimore Sun): Cardin (D) 50, Bongino 24, Sobhani 14

Race: House

Maryland 6th District (Baltimore Sun): Delaney (D) 42, Bartlett 41 (R)

Race: Governor

North Carolina (Elon University): McCrory (R) 52, Dalton (D) 38

North Carolina (Rasmussen Reports): McCrory (R) 54, Dalton (D) 35


Drew Linzer's Latest Projection

Electoral vote: Obama: 332; Romney: 206


FiveThirtyEight's Latest Projection

Electoral Vote: Obama: 296.6; Romney: 241.4

Chance of winning: Obama: 74.6%; Romney: 25.4%

Popular Vote: Obama: 50.4%; Romney: 48.7%

Senate prediction: Democrats: 52.6; Republicans: 47.5

Chance of Winning: Democrats: 90.9%; Republicans: 9.1%


Sam Wang's Latest Projection

Presidential: Obama: 303; Romney: 235

Senate: 53 D/I, 47 R (95% CI: 52-55 D/I)


Barack Obama — Collapse

Barack Obama — Colorado Early Votes

Barack Obama — First Lady Michelle Obama: "I Cast My Vote Early for Barack Obama"

Barack Obama — From One Wolfpack to Another

Barack Obama — Vote Early Florida

Barack Obama — Vice President Biden: Catholics for Obama

Barack Obama — How We Win: Making Sure Every Vote Counts

Barack Obama — The Road to November 6th: America Forward! Tour



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Dylan Matthews · October 29, 2012