Nate Silver and the forecasting consensus, in one chart

Nate Silver's forecast isn't an outlier. In fact, it's actually quite a bit friendlier to Romney's chances than the other models, and only a little more bullish on Obama than the betting markets.

By Ezra Klein October 31, 2012

The Nate Silver backlash

It seems to happen every few weeks. The race tightens or widens or simply continues on exactly as it's been and some pundit or reporter declares it a staggering humiliation for the burgeoning universe of political quants. This week, it's Nate Silver's turn.

By Ezra Klein October 30, 2012

Mitch McConnell and John Boehner’s strategy worked

In endorsement after endorsement, the basic argument is that President Obama hasn't been able to persuade House or Senate Republicans to work with him. If Obama is re-elected, it's a safe bet that they'll continue to refuse to work with him. So vote Romney!

By Ezra Klein October 30, 2012

Mitt Romney’s voodoo spending cuts

This shouldn’t need to be said, but spending cuts have consequences. If we're really going to cut 40 percent from all programs that aren't Medicare, Social Security, and defense, it's going to hurt.

By Ezra Klein October 30, 2012

The most important issue of this election: Obamacare

The most important fact of the 2012 election is that the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010; it just hasn’t been fully implemented yet. If President Obama is reelected, the bulk of it will roll out on schedule in 2014.

By Ezra Klein October 26, 2012

President Obama lays out his second term

An interview President Obama thought was off the record has been forced on the record, and the result is an unusually revealing look at his plans for a second term.

By Ezra Klein October 24, 2012

Neither Obama nor Romney are giving up anywhere. Except maybe New Mexico.

Obama’s biggest television ad advantages are in Florida, Wisconsin, and Nevada, but he also leads Romney in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. Romney is even with Obama in North Carolina and actually opened up an advantage in Ohio last week. The idea that either campaign is conceding any big swing state just isn't true.

By John Sides October 24, 2012

The five most important issues left out of the debates

The 2012 presidential and vice-presidential debates covered a lot of ground. They just skipped over... the two biggest economic issues of our time, the biggest environmental crisis facing the planet, the most important decisions the next president will face... you know, the small stuff.

By Suzy Khimm, Ezra Klein, Sarah Kliff, Brad Plumer October 24, 2012

How to swing the prediction markets and boost Mitt Romney’s fortunes

Political junkies and campaign reporters pay close attention to Intrade, a betting market that purports to predict the 2012 presidential election. But these markets are also occasionally prone to wild swings. That might have happened on Tuesday, when a brief burst of trading, amounting to $17,800 all told, caused Mitt Romney's electoral chances to surge. At least for a bit.

The third presidential debate in graphs

They say that to know who won a debate, you should watch with the sound off. But how about if you want to know how many times Iran was mentioned versus how many times China was mentioned? Or how America's military spending looks compared to the defense budgets of our nearest competitors? For that, you need some graphs.

By Suzy Khimm, Ezra Klein, Sarah Kliff, Dylan Matthews and Brad Plumer October 23, 2012

We shouldn’t have a ‘foreign policy’ debate

The first presidential debate focused on "domestic policy." Tonight's presidential debate will focus on "foreign policy." I'm going to focus on the fact that this distinction is ridiculous.

By Ezra Klein October 22, 2012

Wonkbook: The last presidential debate of 2012

After tonight, there are no obvious moments where one campaign or the other can change the underlying synamics of the race. World events can still matter, but it's out of the two campaigns' hands. That raises the stakes. If one candidate or the other underperforms tonight, there's no opportunity to make it back in the next debate.

By Ezra Klein October 22, 2012