election-forecasting

I admit defeat: Wonkblog’s June election model beat me

Using data from June, Wonkblog's model predicted Obama had a 67 percent chance of winning the election. At the time, I thought that was way, way too high. But the model was right and, going by the latest data, I was wrong.

  • Ezra Klein
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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The economy (slightly) favors Obama, not Romney

The conventional wisdom on this election is that if the economy is front and center, Obama will lose. But that's not what the data tells us.

  • Ezra Klein
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  • Sep 11, 2012
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Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.

Overall, more models have Obama winning than not. But the two that don't should give Romney backers hope.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Aug 31, 2012
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