models

Using data from June, Wonkblog's model predicted Obama had a 67 percent chance of winning the election. At the time, I thought that was way, way too high. But the model was right and, going by the latest data, I was wrong.

  • Ezra Klein
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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Four polls show Obama up in Ohio while all models predict reelection, in our last installment of the 2012 Election in Numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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Democrats look set to pick up a Senate seat in Indiana while most models say Obama has it locked up, and other highlights from the day's election numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 2, 2012
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Wildly differing assessments of the race in Wisconsin, and other model and polls results.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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Mitt Romney won't say how his tax plan adds up. Wonkblog created a tax policy calculator that lets you do the work for him. So go on, give it a try. Reform the tax code.

  • Dylan Matthews and Ezra Klein
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  • Oct 31, 2012
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Every poll but Gallup shows Obama gaining, Scott Brown catches up to Elizabeth Warren, and other highlights from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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The final polls in a presidential race are rarely wrong by more than a percent or two. But that could matter.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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Obama pulls away in Ohio while Romney does the same in Florida, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 26, 2012
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Lena Dunham cuts a video for Obama, the president remains steady at 300 electoral votes in most models, and other highlights from the day's polls, ads and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Democrats are heavily favored to keep the Senate and the White House. But they probably won't retake the House.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Tax hikes hurt a lot when taxes are already high. But when they're low, not so much.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Romney still leads nationally but Obama keeps his edge in Ohio, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 24, 2012
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Strong debate showing are associated with gains in the polls - but the relationship is very weak.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 23, 2012
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Romney leads most national polls, Wisconsin's Senate race heats up, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 22, 2012
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Obama leads in two national polls, Nate Silver increases the president's odds, and other results from the day's models and polls.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 19, 2012
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Obama keeps his lead in Ohio, Heller pulls away in Nevada, and other poll/model results.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 18, 2012
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Obama leads in Nevada, Gallup poll is grisly for the president, and other model and polls findings.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 17, 2012
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Democrats look set to hold governorships in New Hampshire and Washington, but will likely lose one in North Carolina, and other poll and model results.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 16, 2012
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Past tax reforms might not have increased growth. But more dramatic reforms could.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 16, 2012
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Nate Silver gives Dems a whopping 87 percent chance of holding the Senate, Sam Wang thinks they could get up to 56 seats, and other highlights from the day's model results and poll numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 15, 2012
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