The discussion of "who got it right" has pretty much begun and ended with Nate Silver. I'm a fan of Silver's, but some other names deserve to appear on the honor roll. So here's who I trust more now that the election is over.
If the Redskins won their last home game before the election, the incumbent party will hold the White House. This has held true in 16 of the last 17 elections (2004 was the exception). It's also ridiculous example of overfitting.