Who got it right in 2012

The discussion of "who got it right" has pretty much begun and ended with Nate Silver. I'm a fan of Silver's, but some other names deserve to appear on the honor roll. So here's who I trust more now that the election is over.

By Ezra Klein November 12, 2012

Nate Silver and the forecasting consensus, in one chart

Nate Silver's forecast isn't an outlier. In fact, it's actually quite a bit friendlier to Romney's chances than the other models, and only a little more bullish on Obama than the betting markets.

By Ezra Klein October 31, 2012

The problem of overfitting elections, in one brilliant cartoon

If the Redskins won their last home game before the election, the incumbent party will hold the White House. This has held true in 16 of the last 17 elections (2004 was the exception). It's also ridiculous example of overfitting.

By Ezra Klein October 18, 2012

Why everyone hates the weatherman

The problem isn't the weather forecast. It's the economics of telling you about the weather forecast.

By Ezra Klein September 27, 2012


Drunk oil speculators, the egalitarianism of pharmacy and other stories we missed.

By Dylan Matthews September 24, 2012


Shepherd Fairey's sentencing, Zadie Smith on Jay-Z, and other stories we missed.

By Dylan Matthews September 7, 2012