wonking-the-election

Don’t get fooled again: Wonkblog’s guide to watching the exit polls

In 2004, early exit polls fooled much of Washington. But as George W. Bush said, "fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again." So here's what you need to pay attention to -- and what you should probably ignore.

  • Sarah Kliff
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Nov. 5

Four polls show Obama up in Ohio while all models predict reelection, in our last installment of the 2012 Election in Numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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Polls would have to be wrong by four points for Romney to win

It's always possible that the polls are wrong. But they'd have to be wildly off for Romney to win.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 5, 2012
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Sasha Issenberg: How the Democrats pulled ahead of the Republicans on GOTV

"For the sake of innovation on the Republican side, the best thing that could happen to them is that they lose narrowly on Tuesday, that the story becomes how Obama and his allies ran a mechanically superior campaign, and Republican donors, party leaders, and consultants [say], 'We’re going to lose forever unless we figure out how to make our campaigns better.'"

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 5, 2012
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Interviews with swing-state voters: The Democrat who thinks Obama has sold out coal

John Lotterio, 63, Pennsylvania. "[Obama's] killing people over energy by bottling over all the sources of energy, other than green energy. I saw on TV he said that if you want to invest in coal, go ahead, but you’re going to go bankrupt. What kind of attitude is that from that guy?"

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 3, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Friday, Nov. 2

Democrats look set to pick up a Senate seat in Indiana while most models say Obama has it locked up, and other highlights from the day's election numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 2, 2012
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Study: Unemployed voters could turn out in droves on Tuesday

When times are good, the unemployed don't vote. But the worse things get, the more politically active they become.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 2, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Thursday, Nov. 1

Wildly differing assessments of the race in Wisconsin, and other model and polls results.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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Study: Whom voters want to win is less predictive than whom they expect to win

Don't ask who candidates want to win, two political scientists say. Ask who they think will win instead.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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INTERACTIVE: Make President Obama’s tax plan add up!

Wednesday you got to do the math on Mitt Romney's tax plan. Today you get to do the math on President Obama's -- and on Simpson-Bowles.

  • Dylan Matthews and Ezra Klein
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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The Senate may not get more Democratic, but it could get a lot more liberal

New data suggests that most competitive Senate races give voters a choice between two candidates who are quite far apart ideologically.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 31, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Oct. 29

Every poll but Gallup shows Obama gaining, Scott Brown catches up to Elizabeth Warren, and other highlights from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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Why you should be paying attention to poll averages, in one chart

The final polls in a presidential race are rarely wrong by more than a percent or two. But that could matter.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Friday, Oct. 26.

Obama pulls away in Ohio while Romney does the same in Florida, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 26, 2012
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What’s a good ground game worth? About one point.

with national polls deadlocked and the election coming down to a few key swing states,ground game matters more than ever. But how much can a good get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort really get a candidate?

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 26, 2012
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The 2012 Election by the Numbers: Thursday, Oct. 25

Lena Dunham cuts a video for Obama, the president remains steady at 300 electoral votes in most models, and other highlights from the day's polls, ads and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Why Democrats probably won’t take back the House

Democrats are heavily favored to keep the Senate and the White House. But they probably won't retake the House.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Wednesday, Oct. 24

Romney still leads nationally but Obama keeps his edge in Ohio, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 24, 2012
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Will debate win help Obama? Probably not.

Strong debate showing are associated with gains in the polls - but the relationship is very weak.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 23, 2012
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The 2012 Election in Numbers: Monday, Oct. 22

Romney leads most national polls, Wisconsin's Senate race heats up, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 22, 2012
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