wonking-the-election

In 2004, early exit polls fooled much of Washington. But as George W. Bush said, "fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again." So here's what you need to pay attention to -- and what you should probably ignore.

  • Sarah Kliff
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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Four polls show Obama up in Ohio while all models predict reelection, in our last installment of the 2012 Election in Numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 6, 2012
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It's always possible that the polls are wrong. But they'd have to be wildly off for Romney to win.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 5, 2012
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"For the sake of innovation on the Republican side, the best thing that could happen to them is that they lose narrowly on Tuesday, that the story becomes how Obama and his allies ran a mechanically superior campaign, and Republican donors, party leaders, and consultants [say], 'We’re going to lose forever unless we figure out how to make our campaigns better.'"

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 5, 2012
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John Lotterio, 63, Pennsylvania. "[Obama's] killing people over energy by bottling over all the sources of energy, other than green energy. I saw on TV he said that if you want to invest in coal, go ahead, but you’re going to go bankrupt. What kind of attitude is that from that guy?"

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 3, 2012
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Democrats look set to pick up a Senate seat in Indiana while most models say Obama has it locked up, and other highlights from the day's election numbers.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 2, 2012
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When times are good, the unemployed don't vote. But the worse things get, the more politically active they become.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 2, 2012
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Wildly differing assessments of the race in Wisconsin, and other model and polls results.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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Don't ask who candidates want to win, two political scientists say. Ask who they think will win instead.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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Wednesday you got to do the math on Mitt Romney's tax plan. Today you get to do the math on President Obama's -- and on Simpson-Bowles.

  • Dylan Matthews and Ezra Klein
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  • Nov 1, 2012
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New data suggests that most competitive Senate races give voters a choice between two candidates who are quite far apart ideologically.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 31, 2012
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Every poll but Gallup shows Obama gaining, Scott Brown catches up to Elizabeth Warren, and other highlights from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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The final polls in a presidential race are rarely wrong by more than a percent or two. But that could matter.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 29, 2012
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Obama pulls away in Ohio while Romney does the same in Florida, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 26, 2012
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with national polls deadlocked and the election coming down to a few key swing states,ground game matters more than ever. But how much can a good get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort really get a candidate?

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 26, 2012
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Lena Dunham cuts a video for Obama, the president remains steady at 300 electoral votes in most models, and other highlights from the day's polls, ads and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Democrats are heavily favored to keep the Senate and the White House. But they probably won't retake the House.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 25, 2012
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Romney still leads nationally but Obama keeps his edge in Ohio, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 24, 2012
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Strong debate showing are associated with gains in the polls - but the relationship is very weak.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 23, 2012
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Romney leads most national polls, Wisconsin's Senate race heats up, and other results from the day's polls and models.

  • Dylan Matthews
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  • Oct 22, 2012
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