Yet an influential bloc of optimists inside the White House and on Capitol Hill, on both sides of the aisle, are confident a deal can be reached. To this group the past week’s showmanship was a necessary evil, with Obama talking to his liberal base and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) shoring up his conservative flank. Meanwhile, the talks led by Vice President Biden, which House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) brought to a standstill last week by walking out amid Democratic demands for increased taxes, were always meant to be turned over to Obama and the top congressional leaders, the optimists say.
The Biden talks produced a range of options for Obama, House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) as they try to assemble $2 trillion in savings to meet Boehner’s demands and provide for a increase in the debt ceiling that would last beyond the 2012 election.
“The way these things work, there’s a lot of two steps forward, one step back,” said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.).
Administration officials see July 22 as the deadline to reach a deal and leave enough time to formally draft the package and move it through both houses of Congress. But some lawmakers say it’s already too late to draft legislation of the size and complexity under discussion.
This group believes there will be a short-term extension of the debt ceiling — or a brief period of default — as the final details are approved through a summer session that lasts deep into August.
Outside the talks are rank-and-file pessimists. Those lawmakers, with only a vague knowledge of the details, have been whipsawed since the Biden talks broke down. On Wednesday, Obama accused GOP leaders of having less maturity than his 12-year-old and 10-year-old daughters, then one Senate Republican countered by telling Obama to “take a Valium.”
People in both parties said the Biden-led talks had been remarkably productive, with full discussions about every major budget category, including Democratic proposals to raise revenue. The group had tentatively agreed on more than $1 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade and were “within shouting distance” of additional savings when Republicans “kicked it up to the leader level,” said a Democrat familiar to the talks, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations.
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