The week begins with a key reading on Americans’ incomes and spending, and ends with an important report on the state of the job market.
Monday
Forecasters expect that February personal income and spending data will show continued steady growth. Incomes are expected to have risen 0.5 percent, while spending is thought to be up 0.4 percent.
This number should have particularly important implications for overall growth in domestic product in the first quarter. Analysts have been marking down their expectations of first-quarter growth lately, mostly because of signs of weakness in business investment and housing. But personal consumption is the single largest component of GDP, so a positive surprise in this indicator could lead to expectations of a better growth number to start the year (and conversely, a disappointment could cause analysts to mark down growth estimates that much more).
Tuesday
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index is projected to show a 0.5 percent drop in prices in 20 major cities in January, a slight acceleration in the pace of decline from December and a reminder that the housing sector remains in poor shape.
Thursday
Factory orders are expected to have risen only 0.3 percent in February, after a much stronger gain in January.
Friday
The newest reading on the nation’s labor market could tell whether solid results reported for February persisted in March. Analysts think the answer will be yes: They forecast a net 195,000 jobs were added, about the same as the 192,000 reported the previous month. They are also expecting the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.9 percent, following a precipitous three-month drop.
If the forecasts are correct, it will confirm that U.S. employers continue to gain confidence and add workers gradually, despite higher fuel prices and other threats to the recovery.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity is projected to decline to 61 in March, from 61.4, reflecting continued strong growth, though not quite as strong as earlier in the year.
— Neil Irwin
Neil’s Must Reads
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York launched an economics blog last week, featuring short, accessible write-ups of economic research and ideas. Posts during the first week of Liberty Street Economics (a reference to the bank’s address) covered consumer deleveraging, the history of finance in the United States, and more.
Find links at washingtonpost.com/mustreads
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