After last week’s mixed reports on economic growth and the job market in April, this week should offer a sense of how retail sales and inflation held up last month.
Wednesday
Weak exports were a major drag on growth in the first quarter; a new report on international trade should give a more detailed sense of what happened on the trade front in the final month of the quarter, and could shed light on upcoming revisions to the gross domestic product number.
Analysts expect the trade deficit to have widened in March, to $47 billion from $45.8 billion, reflecting higher prices for imported oil.
Thursday
Consumer spending has held up reasonably well so far in 2011 but has not emerged as a strong driver of growth. Instead, it is plodding along, improving gradually.
A report on retail sales in April is expected to show more of the same. Forecasters expect a 0.6 percent gain, a slight acceleration from 0.4 percent in March. Excluding volatile auto and gasoline sales, they expect the number to rise 0.5 percent.
Also Thursday, the Labor Department plans to report on wholesale inflation in April. Analysts are expecting a continued steep rise in the producer price index, due primarily to the steep rise in commodity prices of the past six months.
Look for the producer price index to have risen 0.6 percent, or 0.2 percent excluding volatile food and energy. Over the past year, the index is forecast to have risen a scary 6.5 percent.
Friday
Fortunately for American consumers, businesses appear to have borne most of the brunt of those higher prices. The consumer price index, to be released Friday, is expected to have risen only 3.1 percent over the past year, implying that firms are not raising prices by as much as their raw materials have increased.
For April, analysts expect a 0.4 percent gain in the consumer price index, and excluding food and energy, the index is expected to have risen 0.2 percent.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is forecast to have edged up in April, to 70 from 69.8.
—Neil Irwin
Neil’s
Must Reads
Ryan Avent at The Economist’s Free Exchange blog explains why a falling dollar is nothing to fear. Felix Salmon at Reuters explains why it will be tricky to negotiate a deal to adjust the terms of Greek debt, which many analysts view as a key to resolving the European debt crisis.
Find links at washingtonpost.com/mustreads
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