“The Fed is going to try to do the right thing,” said Vincent Reinhart, a longtime Fed economist and now top U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. But, he added, “The headline they most worry about is ‘The Fed acts to help the incumbent.’ ”
The central bank fiercely guards its independence from politics. But its unprecedented efforts over the past four years — rescuing banks and printing trillions of dollars in new money to support the economy — have raised concerns among conservatives about a rising risk of runaway inflation and a weakened dollar.
In recent months, amid improving economic data, the Fed sent signals that it was pausing its campaign of economic stimulus. But with the escalating crisis in Europe and the sudden slowdown in U.S. economic growth — marked by last week’s report of paltry job growth — many economists say the Fed is likely to reconsider measures to support growth.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke could provide a hint of whether new stimulus is likely when he testifies before Congress on Thursday.
The central bank could take a relatively modest step, such as a firm commitment to keep interest rates low for several years, or a much more dramatic one — for instance, printing hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase Treasury bonds and mortgage assets.
These steps could bring down interest rates, which already are at historic lows, to further support lending and economic activity. Yet the Fed’s actions are not likely to be a panacea for the economy’s ills — just as they haven’t been in recent years — and couldn’t fully insulate the economy from Europe’s problems.
“We’re getting so close to the election. Rates are already at record lows. What are we trying to accomplish by lowering rates even further?” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “Republicans are going to say the Fed’s trying to spike the punch bowl and help the Democrats out because we’re getting closer to the election.”
Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, argued that should the Fed act in the face of criticism, it will demonstrate its independence. “People accuse the Fed of being political in so many ways, and the fact that the Fed does what it wants is what makes them independent,” she said.
There is a long history of the Fed feeling political pressure — particularly from presidential candidates. Richard M. Nixon blamed his 1960 loss in part on the refusal of Fed Chairman William Martin Jr. to lower interest rates. When he became president, Nixon installed a Fed chair, Arthur Burns, who he believed would be vulnerable to pressure.