Key economic events for the week of Aug. 8

August 7, 2011

This week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, plus there will be more July economic data released.

Tuesday

The Fed’s policy committee holds a one-day meeting. The U.S. economic outlook has taken a big dive since the panel’s last meeting, and members of the Federal Open Market Committee are sure to discuss the deterioration in the economy and what steps they could take to address it.

If the Fed makes any changes, they will likely be subtle ones. In his congressional testimony in July, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid out a menu of possibilities for providing assistance. One option would be to pledge to keep the Fed’s policy of maintaining a very large balance sheet in place for some long period of time. Another would be to cut the rate the Fed pays banks for reserves they park, currently 0.25 percent. The Fed also could consider gradually moving its portfolio of bonds toward a more distant average maturity, meaning longer-term debt rather than shorter term.

None of those steps would be game-changers for the U.S. economy, but each would show the depth of the Fed’s concerns about growth and signal a bias toward more monetary easing as the year progresses. If economic conditions become even worse and inflation concerns seem to be ebbing, the Fed could even consider more bond purchases for a third round of quantitative easing, nicknamed “QE3,” later this year.

Thursday

Trade numbers are slated to be released. Economists expect the figures will show that the trade deficit narrowed in June, to $48 billion from $50.2 billion in May. The number will affect the ultimate revisions made to the weak second quarter growth number already reported.

Friday

If the trade numbers offer insight into economic performance for the second quarter, July retail sales data should offer new clues on how things are progressing in the third quarter. Economists expect good results; forecasters are predicting an 0.5 percent rise in retail sales, compared with an 0.1 percent gain in June. Excluding volatile automobiles and gasoline, however, the numbers are expected to be consistent with June’s gain and rise about 0.2 percent.

Neil’s Must Reads

Adair Turner, Britain’s chief financial regulator, has a thoughtful three-part series at the Globalist on the need to challenge conventional economic wisdom. And want more detail on the options the Fed has before it? Try Jon Hilsenrath’s detailed explanation of them on the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog.

Find links at washingtonpost.com/mustreads.

Neil Irwin

Neil’s
Must Reads

Adair Turner, Britain’s chief financial regulator, has a thoughtful three-part series at the Globalist on the need to challenge conventional economic wisdom. And want more detail on the options the Fed has before it? Try Jon Hilsenrath’s detailed explanation of them on the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog.

Find links at washingtonpost.com/mustreads.

SECTION: {section=business, subsection=economy}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=3, defaultsort=reverseChronological, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, includesorts=true, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, childrenitemsperpage=3, includeheader=true, includeverifiedcommenters=true, defaulttab=all, includerecommend=true, includereport=true, maxitemstop=15, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=3, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: {allow_comments=true, allow_photos=false, allow_videos=false, comments_period=3, comments_source=washpost.com, default_sort=, default_tab=, display_comments=true, is_ugc_gallery=false, max_items_to_display=3, max_items_to_display_top=15, moderation_required=false}!!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=3, defaultsort=reverseChronological, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, includesorts=true, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, childrenitemsperpage=3, includeheader=true, includeverifiedcommenters=true, defaulttab=all, includerecommend=true, includereport=true, maxitemstop=15, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=3, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Comments
SECTION: {section=business, subsection=economy}!!!
INITIAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=3, defaultsort=reverseChronological, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, includesorts=true, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, childrenitemsperpage=3, includeheader=true, includeverifiedcommenters=true, defaulttab=all, includerecommend=true, includereport=true, maxitemstop=15, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=3, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!!

UGC FROM ARTICLE: {allow_comments=true, allow_photos=false, allow_videos=false, comments_period=3, comments_source=washpost.com, default_sort=, default_tab=, display_comments=true, is_ugc_gallery=false, max_items_to_display=3, max_items_to_display_top=15, moderation_required=false}!!!

FINAL commentConfig: {includereply=true, canvas_permalink_id=washpost.com/8bvh5zpd9k, allow_comments=true, commentmaxlength=2000, includeshare=true, display_comments=true, canvas_permalink_app_instance=bg52e9xhqr, display_more=true, moderationrequired=false, includefeaturenotification=true, canvas_allcomments_id=washpost.com/km4ey0dajm, comments_period=3, defaultsort=reverseChronological, includevoteofftopic=false, allow_videos=false, includesorts=true, markerdisplay=post_commenter:Post Commenter|staff:Post Writer|top_commenter:Post Forum|top_local:Washingtologist|top_sports:SuperFan|fact_checker:Fact Checker|post_recommended:Post Recommended|world_watcher:World Watcher|cultuer_connoisseur:Culture Connoisseur|weather_watcher:Capital Weather Watcher|post_contributor:Post Contributor, childrenitemsperpage=3, includeheader=true, includeverifiedcommenters=true, defaulttab=all, includerecommend=true, includereport=true, maxitemstop=15, source=washpost.com, allow_photos=false, maxitems=3, display_ugc_photos=false, includepause=true, canvas_allcomments_app_instance=6634zxcgfd, includepermalink=false}!!
Show Comments
Most Read Business