“We’re getting close to that point,” he said.
At least some economists, however, were skeptical that the economy would continue to grow as fast as it did during the last quarter of 2011.
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That rate, 2.8 percent annually, is the fastest recorded in a year and a half. To put that in perspective, over the last 60 years, the average historical growth rate for the U.S. economy has been about 3.2 percent.
But economists questioned whether that relatively modest rate could be sustained.
They noted that consumers could decide to embrace thrift again, as they did shortly after the downturn. That would drive down growth.
Moreover, the other key reason for the recent growth in GDP is that companies built up inventories of goods. Several economists suggested that those inventories will sit on shelves, leading companies to slow down production.
“The current build rate appears out of line with demand,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.
He said the inventory buildup was largely auto-related.
Finally, a slowdown in government spending, which dropped nearly at the rate of 5 percent in the last quarter, could continue, adding to downward pressure on the growth figure, economists said.
State and local government spending, as well as federal spending, fell in the fourth quarter, according to Friday’s report.
Over 2011, the economy grew at a rate of 1.7 percent, a dismal result after many forecasts of robust growth made at the beginning of the year. A combination of the earthquake in Japan, the monetary troubles in Europe and the debt-ceiling standoff in Congress put the economy off course.
Now, many forecasters and businesses are fearful of being too optimistic.
“Even though things feel better at the moment, people don’t want to make the same mistake,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The forecasts are much more cautious. This collective psyche is very fragile.”
Moreover, he said, fear about the potential impact of Europe’s economic woes and the still-
troubled U.S. housing market assert a steady drag on the economy.
The fall in housing values is a significant contributor to household stress as well. Home values have continued to slide since their renewed plunge in 2010, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
“As long as home prices are falling, and they still are, it’s hard to get enthusiastic about anything,” Zandi said.
Staff writer Sarah Kliff contributed to this report.
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