Dylan’s Desk: How Microsoft can break the logjam of carrier anti-innovation

Carrier subsidies are increasingly standing in the way of innovation.

“We’re drunk off the subsidy model,” IDC analyst Ramon Llamas told VentureBeat last week.

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The lure of cheap, subsidized phones underwritten by massively long two-year contracts stands in the way of competition and innovation. The big carriers use their contracts to lock in profits and help limit the customer “churn” that would otherwise make their revenues too unpredictable. But those two-year contracts keep people from upgrading as quickly as they would otherwise, stifling handset makers’ ability to get the latest models in our hands.

Carriers also stifle OS upgrades, keeping you from upgrading to the latest version of Android because they don’t want to invest the time to make it work with a string of older phones: They’ve already got you locked in to a contract, so why would they want to make your phone any better than it already is?

The U.S. is not unique in its dependence on carrier subsidies, but it’s not the only way: In many European countries, for instance, people buy their phones and SIM cards separately, without long, onerous contracts.

Some carriers are starting to see this as a wedge issue. T-Mobile, for instance, promises to do away with contracts and subsidies altogether. The carrier sees it as a more honest, direct model, and I agree: I’m done with contracts. I recently paid $245 to get out of my contract with a large carrier after I had endless problems with its service and its phones.

In an earlier column, I blamed Microsoft for not being able to solve these problems. It was an unfair criticism, but it does reveal an opportunity for the Redmond, Wash.-based software company.

We need someone to break the logjam. Could it be Microsoft?

Instead of standing by and playing the same ballgame as every other mobile phone maker, Microsoft should take a page from Apple’s book and rewrite the game. It’s got the leverage, it’s got the installed base, and it’s got a powerful weapon: cash.

In short, Microsoft should subsidize its own phones. Google currently offers the Nexus 4 for $299, unlocked and off contract. That’s a subsidized price, although the actual amount of the subsidy is probably far less than you might think. When you buy an unsubsidized iPhone for $650, only about $200 of that goes to the iPhone’s  component parts. Let’s be generous and assume that another $200 goes to manufacturing, shipping, and the manufacturer’s profit. That subsidized price is still higher by $250 than the actual cost to the carrier.

In other words, assuming that it, too, can get phones made for $400 apiece, it would cost Microsoft $100 to $200 each to subsidize unlocked, off-contract Windows phones to a sales price of $200 or $300.

That’s a small price to drive its currently anemic Windows Phone OS deeper into the mobile ecosystem.

It would cut out the carriers — those that depend on subsidies, anyway. A small benefit might be helping out the carriers like T-Mobile and Virgin Mobile that have a big incentive to take on the incumbents, and they’d in turn help Microsoft with aggressive, edgy advertising campaigns.