In all, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in March is expected to reach 15.3 million units, according to a joint survey from J.D. Power and Associates and LMC Automotive. That would be flat against February's numbers, despite the average retail price of a new car going up 3 percent, to $28,504.
The retail sales SAAR of 12.1 million units should remain unchanged as well.
What's at the root of continued healthy sales? J.D. Power and Associates senior vice president of global automotive operations John Humphrey says that the steady upward pressure of price has pushed buyers into longer-term loans, but says shoppers also are leasing more, as well as capitalizing on low interest rates.
Bankrate.com's average for new 48-month auto loans currently sits at 2.44 percent, near historic lows.
"While longer loan terms have traditionally been a cause for concern to the industry due to the risk of purchase cycle extension, it is not necessarily as daunting as it may seem." said Humphrey. "The longer loans are being offset by more leasing and the low interest environment, which means that consumers are able to put more of their monthly payment towards their loan principal rather than interest fees."
"We expect the economic environment to improve throughout 2013, as the likelihood of a dark cloud slowing the recovery pace diminishes," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Consumers do not appear phased by headwinds from Washington."
The automakers themselves are upbeat about prospects for the remainder of the year. GM predicts a SAAR of between 15 and 15.5 million units for the year; Chrysler estimates the March SAAR at 15.6 million vehicles, including retail and fleet.
General Motors: GM [NYSE:GM] says it sold 245,950 vehicles in the U.S. in March, up 6.4 percent from the year before. Cadillac posted a 49.5-percent gain to 15,751 units; Buick sales were up 37.4 percent to 18,007 units; GMC sales rose 11.6 percent to 38,333 vehicles; and Chevy was up 0.5 percent to 173,859 units. Big crossovers were in vogue: Chevy's Traverse was up 54 percent, while the similar GMC Acadia was up 77 percent, and the Buick Enclave, 55 percent. But the Buick Regal was off 38.5%; the Chevy Camaro, down 12.8%; the poorly received Chevy Malibu was off 22.4% and the aging-out Cadillac CTS saw its sales fall 37.8%. In addition, GM could have used some extended range on its electric car numbers: Volt sales were down 35.4%.
Ford: Ford [NYSE: F] says it posted a sales increase of 6 percent, its best month since May 2007. The Ford brand, up 6.9 percent, accounted for 229,335 units out of the 236,160-vehicle total, while Lincoln was off 22.5 percent for the remaining 6,825 units. Cars were flat, trucks were up 6 percent, SUVs rose 14 percent between both Ford brands--but Mustang sales were off 15 percent, and Focus sales were down 11.9 percent, while F-Series pickups pushed 16.3 higher and the 2013 Ford Fusion sedan had sales up 6 percent.
Toyota / Lexus / Scion: Toyota says in a preliminary report that it sold 205,342 units in March 2013, up 4.8 percent on an adjusted basis.
Honda / Acura: Not yet reported
Nissan / Infiniti: Nissan says its two brands combined for sales of 137,726 vehicles, up 1 percent on the year, for the best month in the company's history. Nissan-brand vehicles claimed 126,623 of the sales, up 0.4 percent, while Infiniti delivered 11,103 vehicles, up 9 percent. The Leaf electric car posted its best sales month yet, as did the Infiniti JX crossover, while the new Nissan Pathfinder logged an impressive 177-percent boost over the former version.
Volkswagen: VW sales in March rang in at 37,704 units, up 3.1 percent on the month, accumulating to VW's best year-to-date sales since 1973. While the Golf hatchbacks fell by double digits, and the Jetta and Passat sedans were down, the Beetle hatchback climbed more than 32 percent. On the deep end of the extinction pool, VW sold 39 Routan minivans in March.
Hyundai: As usual, Hyundai CEO John Krafcik gave an early look into March sales with a Tweet delivered late last night: "Record Elantra sales (+33%) & red-hot Santa Fe (+22%) fuel 2nd best month ever (68,306, -2%), all-time record 1Q sales. ^jfk"
Kia: Kia sales fell sharply in March from 57,505 to 49,125 units. All model lines were down, Forte and Soul most sharply, while the discontinued Sedona minivan accounted for a fair share of the volume.
BMW / MINI: BMW says it sold 11.2 percent more vehicles in March 2013 than in the year-ago period, between its MINI and BMW brands. BMW sales were up 13.1 percent to 27,078 units, while MINI was up 3.5 percent to 6,071 vehicles. Combined, some 33,149 vehicles were sold by the brands in March.
Audi: Audi checks in with a 14-percent increase in sales, with 13,253 vehicles sold in March 2013.
Mazda: Not yet reported
Jaguar / Land Rover: Jaguar Land Rover North America has posted its best March since 2006, with sales up 4 percent overall, Jaguar up 7 percent to 1,408 units, and Land Rover up 3 percent to 4,314 units. The Jaguar XF grew its sales by 30 percent, while the Range Rover Evoque watched sales rise by 47 percent. The combined tally: 5,722 vehicles in March.
Mitsubishi: Not yet reported
Volvo: Not yet reported
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