But forget the “if” for a moment. A more important question, as far as passengers are concerned, is: Should it happen?
Just after US Airways announced last month that it had the backing of key employee unions at American Airlines, Kevin Mitchell of the Business Travel Coalition called on the Transportation Department to conduct a thorough analysis of past airline mergers and their outcomes. His organization, an advocacy group for corporate travel interests, has testified before Congress against several previous consolidations. Mergers, Mitchell says, have allowed some airlines to “ignore the demands of their most valuable customers.”
The US Airways-American hookup is by no means a certainty. So it may be too soon to sound the alarm bells, but not by much. The next chapter in the process is a bankruptcy court hearing, scheduled for next month, in which a judge will determine whether American’s current management has the right to discharge the company’s labor agreements.
No one knows when an actual merger plan would be announced, although it seems clear that US Airways wants it to happen as soon as possible. The Justice Department is responsible for determining whether a US Airways-American combination should be challenged on competitive grounds, with the Transportation Department and the Federal Aviation Administration typically advising the agency. If the DOT has compelling evidence that airlines didn’t keep their promises in past mergers, it could effectively block the deal. But either way, it would be highly unusual for the government to conduct any kind of study before a deal is announced.
A DOT spokesman declined to comment, and representatives of US Airways and American wouldn’t answer questions about the merger beyond their prepared statements.
But the way many air travelers see it, we don’t need any studies to determine whether the merger is a good idea. Most of those I’ve talked to, pointing to the dismal quality of domestic air travel today, say that it’s not. “There’s less and less competition in the airline industry with all the mergers,” says MaryHelen Maupin, a travel agent in Nashville who has had a front-row seat to every airline combination since deregulation. “One thing’s for sure: It ruins customer service and employee morale.”
Seth Miller is an air-travel blogger who’s closely following the proposed merger. Based on previous carrier consolidations, he says, he expects two results from this one: “fewer choices and higher fares.”
“There’s not a single positive aspect of the merger for consumers,” he says. “At least none that I can see.”
But Michael Miller, vice president of strategy for the American Aviation Institute, a Washington-based think tank, says that the benefits of such mergers are invisible to most passengers. When Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines combined in 2008, he says, the process was “seamless” and made sense from an operational perspective. The new airline had a commanding presence in Asia and South America, and its network now serves international customers better. When airlines become more competitive, they become more profitable and reliable, which helps consumers, he says.