Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier had a full house Friday afternoon in her command center, down the hall from her office on the top floor of D.C. police headquarters. There, with Mayor Vincent C. Gray (D), Lanier took what’s become a ritual victory lap, touting another record decline in the city’s homicide count.
This year, the number dropped from 132 to 108. “People are feeling safer, because they are safer,” Gray said.
The Crime Scene
Are they? Much is made of year-to-year homicide totals. What figure more concisely captures the condition of a city than its needless waste of human life? But a broader look at 2011’s crime figures paint a more complete portrait of a District that has, in fact, become remarkably safer.
Reporting on crime trends in this town tends to follow a formula: Police and politicians try to highlight the good stats and take credit for the successes. The Fraternal Order of Police and other department critics try to show how things aren’t so hunky-dory, and they use their stats to thrash management. I turned instead to the D.C. Crime Policy Institute, which was funded by the city in 2009 to research D.C. crime trends and policing. Executive Director John Roman and his colleagues at the nonpartisan Urban Institute are crunching crime data and trying to develop policy recommendations to help authorities improve their tactics and strategies. Roman reviewed the 2011 figures and shared his thoughts, starting with the homicide figure.
“It’s remarkable, frankly,” Roman said. “D.C. compares very well to just about any other city.” Homicide rates are down across the country, he acknowledges, but the approximately 40 percent decline D.C. has seen since 2008 makes the city stand out among its peers. But there’s more good news:
●Violent crime more broadly is on the wane. It’s not just homicide. Armed robberies fell 12 percent, and assault with a dangerous weapon fell 4 percent, according to D.C. police. And note that recent Census Bureau estimates indicate that the District’s population has increased more than 8 percent since 2000. “To have these declines when there’s that sort of population growth is really an achievement,” Roman said. Some of that decline follows national trends, he said, but the decline in the District exceeds those trends.
●Thefts are way up. Some property crimes, including auto thefts and burglaries, declined in 2011, but those improvements were eclipsed by 12 percent surges in nonviolent thefts and unarmed robberies. That, Roman said, is more indicative of a growing and prosperous city rife with criminal opportunities than of a policing breakdown. “The theft risk is related to how much stuff you have and how many stores there are and how well they can monitor inventory and detect thefts,” he said.
Lanier blamed the increase on street thefts of devices such as smartphones and portable music players. Roman, who has studied those thefts, said the District doesn’t collect precise-enough data to pass judgment on that claim, but he said the phenomenon is, though real, easily prevented through personal precautions. “By carrying an expensive electronic device, you’re making yourself more of a target,” he said. “People don’t like to hear that message, but it’s an important one.”
●Police deployment appears to be effective. Lanier’s department has put its focus on reducing violent crime, focusing on taking guns off the street, tracking repeat offenders and defusing gang beefs before they escalate. “It’s a pretty effective strategy,” Roman said. What wouldn’t be nearly as effective, he added, would be to react rashly to the theft increase. “You could put a cop on every corner,” he said. “You could put a Metro officer in every subway car. That would deter this kind of crime, but at an enormous cost and, potentially, the cost of taking your eye off the ball of violence prevention.”
Besides the thefts, there are a few pockets of bad news: an increase in sex assaults east of the Anacostia River, for one. But Roman said that figure, representing a few dozen crimes, is of limited statistical significance and should not detract from years of progress. “I still find that the general public is not aware that we’ve had this 20-year crime decline, and crime levels are now at levels we haven’t seen since the ’60s,” said Roman, 42. “If you’re my age or younger, this is as safe as it’s ever been, and that’s the headline.”
The Post Most: LocalMost-viewed stories, videos and galleries int he past two hours
Loading...
Comments