The senior administration official said that it was not clear whether bin Laden’s death would cause the Taliban to separate from al-Qaeda. “But his death makes that more likely, which could give traction to reconciliation efforts between the Taliban and the Afghan government.”
Lawmakers of both parties have expressed increasing impatience. “The question before us is whether Afghanistan is important enough to justify the lives and massive resources that are being spent there, especially given our nation’s debt crisis,” Sen. Richard G. Lugar (Ind.), the senior Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee said at the hearing.
“The president should not just withdraw an arbitrary number of troops,” Lugar said. “Rather, he should put forward a new plan that includes a definition of success in Afghanistan based on the United States’ vital interests and a sober analysis of what is possible to achieve,” he said.
In the 10 days since bin Laden’s death, many legislators have called for the United States to speed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, beginning with Obama’s planned drawdown of an unspecified number of troops this summer.
The U.S.-led coalition, with a current total of about 140,000 troops, two-thirds of them American, has pledged a complete combat withdrawal by 2014.
There is little dispute in the White House and among lawmakers that this year has brought substantial military gains against the Taliban. But assessments of the other elements of the strategy — such as improving the economy and the government in ways that can sustain hard-won security — are less positive.
Many have questioned the feasibility of plans to recruit and train as many as 400,000 Afghan security forces to take over once foreign troops depart.“Despite our best efforts, there are challenges — corruption, predatory behavior, incompetence — still evident within the Afghan army and police,” Kerry said. “On top of these problems, there is the question, ultimately, of money, resources.”
While the annual cost of maintaining the Afghan forces is estimated at up to $10 billion, Afghan tax revenue totals about $2 billion. “So who will pay the bills to avoid having those armed soldiers and police mobilized as part of the next insurgency?” Kerry asked.
As Obama awaits a July withdrawal recommendation from Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan, “our understanding is that the President’s intention is not for it to be a pittance,” a U.S. military official said.
“I’m not at all surprised that people on the Hill and elsewhere in the federal government want to use this to have a broader debate about where we’re spending their money,” the official said. But “I don’t think there’s a lot of deep questioning right now among the [military] inner circle on how do we now turn” bin Laden’s death into a new strategy.
“The military’s perspective going into this decision making process is not about renewing the debate over the strategy,” the official said. “We’ve been given our mission. It’s a strategy we believe is working and that we know has a deadline.”
U.S. military officials in Afghanistan have pushed to stay as aggressive as possible against the Taliban and have urged a smaller troop drawdown in the short term.
“What has been the U.S. administration’s primary argument for being in Afghanistan — the al-Qaeda threat — has now been diminished,” said one Western diplomat in Kabul. “It will only strengthen the argument that you can now begin the military withdrawal.”
Correspondent Joshua Partlow in Kabul contributed to this report.
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