Colorado’s table was set for monster fire

No one predicted fires like the current ones, but years ago climate scientists warned state and federal officials that they could start seeing early springs, more hot and dry weather, and frequent and perhaps severe droughts, Doesken said.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder was among the first to sound an alarm.

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Colorado Springs Police Chief Peter Carey announced late Thursday night that the remains of one person were found in a house that burned down. A second person is missing.

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Firefighters in Colorado Springs are struggled to gain control after a forest fire that started west of the city. An AP aerial tour of one neighborhood showed hundreds of heavily damaged or destroyed homes as well as charred forests.

Climate scientists there saw temperatures warming nationwide. Rain cycles changed from mild and prolonged to hard and short. During the longer dry spells, land was susceptible to burns, said Bob Henson, meteorologist and science writer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.

Colorado is in the middle of “a terrible dry period,” Henson said. The snowpack statewide was less than 3 percent of the normal level on June 1.about the time the fires started.

With a warming climate, authorities are going to need to be more active in managing forests to limit wildfire damage, scientists say.

In New Mexico, where two fires recently combined to form the Whitewater-Baldy Complex, the state’s largest-ever wildfire, Christopher Allison sees other disastrous fires waiting to happen because, he said, the Forest Service has not allowed loggers to clear trees.

“I think you’re going to have to get in there . . . and remove trees,” said Allison, department director for extension animal sciences and natural resources at New Mexico State University. “There are millions of acres that look a lot like what’s being burned right now.”

Clearing trees is important because fires like to climb. A low-intensity burn that starts in grass will work its way up small trees. Fires burn with higher intensity in the canopy, where they are harder to manage, Allison said.

Logging is forbidden in some western areas to protect the endangered Mexican spotted owl. But the Forest Service must make a call — wildfires or the owls, Allison said.

Another problem is the construction of homes next to scrub brush that often is a starting point for fires.“It’s not a matter of if they burn, but when,” Allison said.

About one in four Colorado homes sits in a fire risk zone, a recent state report showed — involving about a million people, according to a Colorado State Parks map.

Sherman said that the Forest Service is working to clear forests of the food fires need to grow. The agency oversees 193 million acres, and as much as 82 million acres need to have dead trees and grass removed, he said.

A controlled burn is one method, costing $200 per acre, money the Forest Service does not have, he said. Logging is another way, but as the price of lumber has been falling, many sawmills say removing trees is not worth the expense.

So the Forest Service has set modest goals. In 2004, it worked to clear its woods of 2.1 billion board feet of trees, the measurement of cut trees from top to bottom. The 2012 goal is 2.6 billion, about 215,000 acres, Allison said.

“These are the areas where we have our greatest difficulty in protecting life and property,” Sherman said. “When you’re talking about vast forest . . . it’s very difficult.”

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.