Climate change means more frequent droughts and floods, U.N. panel says in report

“I’ve been a meteorologist for 30 years, and I’ve never seen a year like 2011 in terms of extreme weather events,” Jeff Masters, who co-founded the Web site Weather Underground, said in a conference call with reporters that was organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

In its report, the U.N. panel says it has “low confidence” in drawing scientific conclusions yet from any observed changes in the increased number of tropical storms worldwide.

Personal Post

Video

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has met with Thai flood victims at an evacuation center after announcing a $10 million aid package. (Nov. 17)

Video

Japan's government gave journalists a tour of the country's tsunami-damaged nuclear power plant for the first time since the March 11 disaster. (Nov. 12)

Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric-science professor at MIT who studies hurricane intensity and frequency, said researchers need to look more closely at whether intense storms are making landfall more frequently, since that is what threatens society the most.

“It’s sort of an irony that the things that matter the most to people are the things climate scientists have the least handle on, by our own admission,” Emanuel said in an interview.

The report calls on governments to adopt “low-regrets measures” that will offer societal benefits even if climate change does not cause as much damage as many researchers predict.

Many public and private institutions across the globe are already adjusting to the idea that extreme weather has become the new normal. Thomas Wilson, chairman and chief executive of Allstate, told a group of Wall Street analysts this spring that his company cannot afford to ignore the increased frequency of climate disasters in recent years.

Sharlene Leurig, senior manager of the insurance program at the investors group Ceres, said the fact that 2011 ranks as the most expensive year in the insurance industry’s history means consumers will have to pay more to get insurance.

And groups such as the Climate Corp., which offers full-season weather insurance for farmers in more than two dozen states, now rely on climate modeling to help determine their rates. The firm’s chief executive, David Friedberg, said that, because the weather has become so unpredictable, more corn and soybean farmers are willing to supplement federal crop insurance by paying between $30 and $40 an acre.

“What we see is really the acute pain experienced by farmers because they’re suffering from more floods and more droughts than they’ve ever experienced,” Friedberg said, adding that this year North Dakota farmers contended with two separate deluges and extreme heat.

In poorer regions of the world, such as Africa, countries are hoping to use technology and pooled resources to respond. The African Union has created the African Risk Capacity program, or ARC, which will use satellite weather surveillance and software developed by the U.N. World Food Program to calculate and direct disaster assistance as soon as a severe drought hits.

Princeton University’s Michael Oppenheimer, one of the lead author’s of the panel’s report, said the group will issue another chapter in February detailing how some countries have begun to adapt to the increased risk of climate-related disasters. Bangladesh has reduced its cyclone-related fatalities by adopting an early-warning system and building concrete shelters for those living on the coast, he noted.

“We don’t have to sit there like punching dummies and take this on the chin,” Oppenheimer said. “The good-news part of this is these things work.”

Still, Oppenheimer said, most nations are not doing enough.

“Governments are behind the eight ball on this,” he said. “They’re just not doing what they should be doing to protect people.”