(BERND WUSTNECK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES) - Dust rises Monday in a field in Groess Luesewitz, near the eastern German city of Rostock. The region has lacked rain, and the soil is dry.
Hot weather stunts the growth of wheat and corn as the plants dry out. Above 95 degrees, corn typically fails to flower and reproduce.
Wheat production in Russia took the biggest hit — with yields about 15 percent lower than they might have been — as that country’s arable region has warmed substantially since 1980.
Climate change in 2010
Ken Cassman, a professor of systems agronomy at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, challenged the study. “It’s not clear how well these analyses are capturing how well farmers can respond, and have been responding, to changing temperatures,” he said.
Lobell said the study did not try to assess any adaptations adopted by farmers by, for example, adjusting planting schedules or moving to cooler locales. But it’s a question he and his colleagues are pursuing.
The study should motivate governments and seed companies to develop heat- and drought-resistant crops, Schlenker said. “In the last 60 years, there have been close to no advances in making crops less sensitive to extreme heat,” he said.
Likewise, farmers around the world will need to adapt to a rapidly changing climate, said Earth Policy Institute President Lester Brown.
And although U.S. agriculture might not be feeling the worst effects of climate change, Brown said, changing precipitation patterns are affecting the nation’s planting schedule. Typically, 40 percent of the nation’s corn crop is planted by May 1; this year only 13 percent is in the ground because of heavy rains in the Midwest and northern plain states.
“We are way behind, and we’re not going to catch up quickly,” Brown said, adding that if farmers can’t plant much of the corn crop by May 10, it could have a significant impact on the year’s overall yield.
The nation’s consumers might end up paying more for food as other countries experience shortages.
“There’s no question . . . the price effects are going to be felt much more broadly,” said David Waskow, climate change program director for Oxfam America.
North American farmers will initially see greater yields as the climate warms, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 Summary Report for Policymakers. Eventually, though these gains will be erased.
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