Coach thinks Schaub is a top-10 quarterback. Fancy stats disagrees.


(AP Photo/LM Otero, File)

There are some unrealistic expectations in California.

First linebacker LaMarr Woodley, who signed with Oakland as a free agent this offseason, felt the 11-year playoff drought would end for the Raiders in 2014.

“People definitely reacted when I said this was a playoff-caliber team,” Woodley said. “That should always be the main objective. If your goal is to go 8-8, I don’t want you on my team. We’re aiming for the top. Anything less is unacceptable.”

And now Raiders Coach Dennis Allen thinks Matt Schaub could be a top 10 quarterback this season.

“I haven’t made any bones about (the fact) I brought Matt Schaub in here to be a starter,” Allen said. “He’s been a top 10 quarterback in this league. There are a lot of teams out there that would love to have a top 10 quarterback in this league. I feel like we have one, so that’s the way we’re going right now.”

Schaub posted a 2-6 record as a starter for the Houston Texans last season while throwing for 2,310 yards, 10 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. According to Profootballfocus.com, his 70 percent accuracy rate (a quarterbacks completion percentage if you factor in dropped passes and take away spikes and throwaways) ranked 22nd out of 27 quarterbacks taking at least 50 percent of the snaps last season. That dropped to 55.1 percent when under pressure (27 out of 27).

For Schaub to climb back into the ranks of the top 10 (he was nominated to the Pro Bowl in 2009 and 2012) he is going to have to step up his game quite a bit. Since 2010, top 10 QBs have completed more passes, averaged more yards per attempt and seen a better TD/INT ratio than Schaub’s 2013 campaign.

Name Drop backs Att. Comp Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD In Sk
Matt Schaub 383 358 219 61.2% 2310 6.45 10 14 21
Top 10 since 2010, normalized to 400 Dropbacks 400 363 236 65.0% 2870 8.00 21 7 22
Source: ProFootballFocus

But Schaub is also 32 years old, and since 1970 there have been just 10 QBs who have put up top 10 numbers (3,500 or more passing yards, 30 or more touchdowns and a passer rating in excess of 90) in their age 32 to 35 seasons.

Player Year Age Tm Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int QB Rtg
Warren Moon 1990 34 HOU 362 584 61.99% 4689 33 13 96.8
Steve Young 1994 33 SFO 324 461 70.28% 3969 35 10 112.8
Randall Cunningham 1998 35 MIN 259 425 60.94% 3704 34 10 106.0
Steve Beuerlein 1999 34 CAR 343 571 60.07% 4436 36 15 94.6
Brett Favre 2001 32 GNB 314 510 61.57% 3921 32 15 94.1
Brett Favre 2004 35 GNB 346 540 64.07% 4088 30 17 92.4
Peyton Manning 2009 33 IND 393 571 68.83% 4500 33 16 99.9
Peyton Manning 2010 34 IND 450 679 66.27% 4700 33 17 91.9
Tom Brady 2010 33 NWE 324 492 65.85% 3900 36 4 111.0
Tom Brady 2011 34 NWE 401 611 65.63% 5235 39 12 105.6
Drew Brees 2011 32 NOR 468 657 71.23% 5476 46 14 110.6
Tom Brady 2012 35 NWE 401 637 62.95% 4827 34 8 98.7
Drew Brees 2012 33 NOR 422 670 62.99% 5177 43 19 96.3
Tony Romo 2013 33 DAL 342 535 63.93% 3828 31 10 96.7
Philip Rivers 2013 32 SDG 378 544 69.49% 4478 32 11 105.5
Drew Brees 2013 34 NOR 446 650 68.62% 5162 39 12 104.7

Maybe he can, but the odds are against.

Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog and prefers to be called a geek rather than a nerd.
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