Each week, Collin Hager uses his HVaC Scoring System to let you know whom to start and drop this week in head-to-head fantasy baseball leagues. This week’s players to avoid:
Garrett Jones is one of the most added bats in ESPN leagues in the last week and it makes sense given how he has performed to date. This is a case of buyer beware. While his power numbers are in line, they are still drastically lower the rest of the season than many at the position.
With the average starter projected to put up 19 home runs, the 12 from Jones are a problem. In addition, he is expected to produce two fewer RBI and one fewer runs per week. It adds up to a player that will underperform the value being expected.
Murphy has been the seventh most added player in ESPN leagues, but is bound to fall off. The outfielder is swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone (Z-Swing%) than at any point since 2011 and offering at far more pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%). He compounds it by making less contact with those bad pitches (O-Contact%).
Add in his struggles away from home (.248 the last three years, .228 in 2014) and against lefties (.196) and this is a cautionary tale.
Another player out of Cleveland being added of late is Chisenhall. His playing time has increased more because of the injury to Nick Swisher than anything else. His .424 BABIP is far above the .243 of last year and his career .299 mark in 244 games is the driving force behind the anticipation of a correction. The HVaC sees him as not being above the positional average in any of the five categories and will likely be a strong outlier in runs, RBI, H/PA the rest of the season.
Since his peak of 9.89 in 2009, Galladro’s K/9 has dropped every year. Adding in a BABIP 40 points below his career mark and a strand rate seven points above it, the odds that Gallardo can maintain his 3.56 ERA should be questioned. The Brewers’ starter checks in as the number 71 pitcher in the HVaC and is a candidate to be sold now.
It will be hard for Kazmir to be as good as he has been. He has been light on strikeouts so far this season, posting two fewer than last year and leaving room for improvement. The concerns come in the fact that his .254 BABIP is 70 points better than last season while his HR/FB ratio is at its lowest since 2009. While the numbers make sense for now, his strand rate coupled with this scream of a pitcher ready for a correction and keep him as a fringe starter in 10-team formats according to the HVaC.