All the Rays’ David Price needs to succeed is to be ahead in the count


(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher David Price is probably better known for hitting Boston’s slugger David Ortiz  in the back with a fastball than he is for his pitching prowess. And that’s a shame, because the left-handed starter leads the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio (10-to-1) and has struck out 90 batters in 84.1 innings pitched.

Price is also the best in the majors at getting the third called strike on an 0-2 count this season.

That’s no small feat because of the strike zone shrinking as the number of strikes climbs:

The area of the strike zone decreases on the order of 77 square inches with two strikes as compared to a strike-free count.

While it is purely conjecture, one potential explanation here for the difference in sizes could be the reluctance of umpires to be put on the spot by ringing up a hitter on a called third strike pitch that they might perceive as borderline. Early in the count, they may be more likely to rule such pitches as strikes given the lower immediate impact of their decision on the game.

When Price has an 0-2 count he is working the outside of the plate against right-handers and lefties.

DPrice

But Price appears to be getting the benefit of the doubt on the borderline calls — six of the called third strike pitches have been out of the strike zone entirely.

Zone breakdown for called strikes for David Price on 0-2 count (Source: Baseball Savant)
Zone breakdown for called strikes for David Price on 0-2 count (Source: Baseball Savant)

As you would expect Price’s go-to pitch on a 0-2 count is the sinker, and it has been effective — 16 strikeouts in 27 at bats — but his fastball has also gotten the job done.

Pitches and results on 0-2 count during 2014 season
Pitch Type Count AB K BAA SLG ISO BABIP
Sinker 55 27 16 0.074 0.074 0.000 0.182
Fourseam 26 10 6 0.200 0.600 0.400 0.333
Cutter 22 9 2 0.222 0.333 0.111 0.286
Curve 9 4 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Change 8 5 3 0.200 0.200 0.000 0.500
Source: Brooksbaseball.net

Price’s 4-4 record in 12 starts is not going to get him in the Cy Young award conversation, but if you need a strikeout on an 0-2 count, he is your man.

Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog and prefers to be called a geek rather than a nerd.

sports

fancy-stats

Success! Check your inbox for details. You might also like:

Please enter a valid email address

See all newsletters

Comments
Show Comments
Next Story
Neil Greenberg · June 4, 2014